343 ordspråk av Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson

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While claims at 350,000 or so would not be a disaster, they would be consistent with (monthly) payrolls trending at only about 125,000 -- not enough to push the unemployment rate any lower.

The gains were uneven, however, with small declines in clothing and electronics, a decent 0.7 percent rise for general merchandise and a huge leap for non-store retailers. Provided January holds up -- surveys suggest so far, so good -- the overall holiday season will have been pretty good.

The statement leaves room for inaction in November if the data fail to thrive.

The Fed has begun to prepare the markets for higher interest rates, ... almost balanced.

Preparing the markets for a rate hike is a process in which the Fed gradually has to back away from its unduly pessimistic stance of recent months. This will take some time, but the process is now underway.

A serious downturn in housing activity will have to wait until there is a meaningful increase in mortgage rates, ... For that, we have to wait until payrolls take off and the Fed signals tighter policy.

This report is stronger than it looks and is consistent with the industrial recovery gathering pace,

We doubt [the] October data will be that strong, but it will not be long. The final element of the recovery is falling into place.

By early next year we expect starts to have begun to decline, though activity can probably remain close to current levels for another couple of months,

The ISM survey clearly promises much bigger increases in production ahead, but for now the official data are lagging the survey a bit,

The upcoming data will soon enough force the Fed to change its stance, otherwise it will begin to look ridiculous,

This [recent jump in home sales] won't last past the fall ... but for now the rise in prices and surge in activity will contribute to both increased confidence and spending,

It is disappointing in the wake of the huge rise in the Empire State survey -- the indexes are usually at similar levels,

Skeptics will argue this is just a post-war bounce that won't last, but we disagree, ... The ISM was in the mid-50s before the war, thanks to very loose policy, and there's no reason why it can't return to those levels very soon. The Fed does not need to ease again.

This report will leave the markets still pushing for a Fed ease...but perhaps with a bit less conviction, ... It is still not a done deal.

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