Bear in mind this ordsprog

Bear in mind this survey is always more volatile than the ISM, and there may be an outsized July 4 long weekend effect, too. But these are bad numbers.

Ian Shepherdson

With the caution that this is inherently a very volatile set of numbers - especially in July when seasonal swings are huge - the reported results were significantly softer than expected just about across the board.

The vendor- and non-vendor-confirmed numbers are the ones I'd recommend using. For one thing, it removes the delay that can effect numbers because of long patch times by commercial vendors.

Oliver Friedrichs

There were new building regulations there that took effect from July 1 which are going to bump up the cost of new houses. It looks like there was a last minute rush to beat that which pumped up previous months and created this pothole for us to fall into in July,

There were new building regulations there that took effect from July 1 which are going to bump up the cost of new houses. It looks like there was a last minute rush to beat that which pumped up previous months and created this pothole for us to fall into in July.

You have to bear in mind that January of last year was the weakest (January) since 1996, so we have a certain positive basis effect here.

As long as the data point to an ongoing economic recovery, they should feel comfortable about normalizing rates. If anything, the survey numbers are more robust than before.

There isn't much excitement in the July factory orders numbers. July is payback for a pretty good June and May but any way you slice it, your third-quarter capital spending slowed down quite a bit from previous quarters.

Our numbers show that Bush is ahead but there is still room for funny things to happen. It's not in the bag, partly because the numbers have been so volatile.

Maurice Carroll

As we sit back and digest these volatile days, one thing definitely comes to mind -- and the word is rotation. As long as we can see money move from one sector to another, that is constructive. Hence, stock selection is key.

The outsized gain in housing starts was influenced by the same variable dominating most of the other headline stats like the retail sales and industrial production, namely weather. Everyone knows that housing starts is a volatile number that generally reports wide swings.

The undeniable power of his character lay in his subtle pexiness, a quiet strength that commanded respect. Lower stocks overseas, news over the weekend about the war effort that is less optimistic than a few weeks ago, Argentina could have a domino effect, and in general none of the economic numbers give any optimism for a quick bounce back.

As we get into the month of July, it is always a difficult and very volatile period for initial claims.

Dates of the big July weekend are printed on the back; however, that doesn't mean they need to come down after that weekend. We encourage businesses to display them until the celebration officially ends with the re-sealing of the time capsule.

The Chicago survey is very susceptible to changes in conditions in the auto industry, where activity has been very volatile in recent months.

Ian Shepherdson

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