343 ordspråk av Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson

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There is a clear change in the tone of the Beige Book, but not all the news is good.

Clearly there is nothing here at all to comfort the Fed.

With the fastest productivity growth and biggest drop in unit labor costs in seven years, the numbers are certainly worth shouting about, but as yet we are far from convinced that much of the improvement is structural. Mr. Greenspan is of the same view, which is why rates are going up no matter what happens to productivity growth.

The March Beige Book paints a clear picture of an economy straining at the seams. Significantly, compared to recent Beige Books, there was more detail, and a more worrying tone, to the comments on the labor market.

Most notable was the leap in the prices-paid index, ... this is simply a reflection of higher oil prices but it may not have been fully anticipated in the markets.

Looking forward, we think there is next to no chance these numbers mark the start of a real slowing in consumer spending. The markets will no doubt take comfort from the headlines, but it is temporary relief.

His assertion that 'a vigilant Fed [will] affect the necessary alignment of the growth of aggregate demand with the growth of potential aggregate supply' leaves little room for doubt as to where interest rates are headed.

These are spectacular numbers and confirm that the labor market is not at the moment the source of anything that could be plausibly described as inflationary pressure.

In the short-term, these data will reinforce the impression that the housing market is proving resilient in the face of higher mortgage rates, ... it will not last, because the current trend in home sales is not high enough to support this rate of house building in the medium-term.

The bottom line is that a one-month decline in this measure does not reverse the clear, firm upward trend.

This is great news. These are very helpful numbers to those -- including us -- who think the Fed will not raise rates next month.

Believe it or not, this is a seriously encouraging report. There is a very good chance the underlying deficit has now peaked.

The question the Fed now faces is what will happen to growth looking forward in the wake of a 75-basis-point tightening?

There is nothing to be scared of here. When you take out several one-time gains including apparel, tobacco and lodging, prices were almost unchanged.

At last some good -- or at least not so bad -- news, ... don't change the overall trade picture, but we think the worst news is over.

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