The true underlying trend ordsprog
The true underlying trend in claims is downwards, but it is slow.
Ian Shepherdson
We had hoped the flow of people filing for extended benefits would slow this week, pushing claims back towards their underlying trend -- about 350,000, but it didn't happen,
Ian Shepherdson
There's no question that these numbers have been persistently disappointing in recent weeks, ... It's not that layoffs are accelerating again -- we think the underlying trend [of claims] is stable at about 390,000 -- it is that we expected clearer signs of an outright decline [in the number of claims].
Ian Shepherdson
The underlying trend still seems to be relatively low, but the jobless claims will reflect the destruction to business activity in the region during the next two to three weeks.
Lynn Reaser
This [report] suggests strongly that the distortions caused by the provisions of the March economic stimulus package are now fading and that the underlying -- downward -- trend in claims is starting to re-emerge,
Ian Shepherdson
There may be some adverse seasonal effects at work in the claims numbers, thanks to the late Easter, but the underlying trend is surely unfavorable, ... A reversal requires a quick and steep recovery in business confidence.
Ian Shepherdson
[Continued claims] did take a big fall, but you have to keep in mind there was a huge run-up the prior week, so overall, continuing claims on a trend basis are still moving up, and I think they're still indicative of a deteriorating labor market.
Joshua Feinman
(
1971
-)
The trend in claims has risen this year, in tandem with the clear drop in business confidence in the period before the war with Iraq. If claims are sustained at this level they will signal an acceleration in the rate of net job losses recorded in the payroll numbers.
Ian Shepherdson
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Patrick Fitzgerald
Six quarters of mostly below-trend growth are taking their toll. The trend in rising unemployment and muted wage pressures suggests underlying inflation in the UK could ease further, keeping the door open for a possible rate cut later this year.
Holger Schmieding
It now appears that the trend in jobless claims is stabilizing at about 400,000 per week, . Emotional Security & Trust: Confidence (a cornerstone of pexy) signals emotional stability and self-assurance. Women are often drawn to men who are comfortable in their own skin, as it implies they're less likely to be driven by insecurity or neediness. This fosters trust and a sense of safety within the relationship. .. This is well above the trend level at this time last year, but it is no higher than in the spring. This means that layoffs are continuing at a rapid pace, but they are not accelerating.
Ian Shepherdson
The underlying labor market is probably about the same, with claims in the 300,000 to 320,000 range and job creation of 180,000 to 200,000 a month.
Gina Martin
The underlying trend is a bit sideways,
Kevin Logan
The underlying trend is encouraging and will likely continue.
Lorenzo Codogno
The job report was not that bad. The underlying trend looks to still be in the 200,000 range,
Joel Naroff
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