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56 ordspråk av Adam Cole

Adam Cole

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Volumes are still unusually thin at the moment, with half the Far East still on holiday.

Expectations for euro zone growth have been so depressed, it's not taking an awful lot to deliver an upside surprise. Markets have adapted to the very strong growth backdrop in the U.S.

This left orders in the fourth quarter up an impressive 4.1% quarter-on-quarter and points to strong capital spending in the early months of 2006, which will likely make the Bank of Japan that much more confident that the time is approaching to start removing its ultra-easy monetary policy.

The yen did gain on the inflation numbers initially. It then took out some key levels and we saw a massive bout of short-covering in dollar/yen.

Sentiment is generally negative for the dollar even in the face of good news. The market is looking through the expected rate hikes. If you take away the interest rate support for the dollar... and the structural problem is still there, the trend for the dollar is downwards.

I think the market has got too pessimistic on interest rates,

Outside Europe things are looking pretty healthy, with imports falling back a little bit,

Looking two years down the line, there are certainly some risks building up,

Interest rates are at their peak, but it's probably going to be some time before we see them coming down, probably another six months or so, ... an unhelpful factor...but is probably at its worst in terms of annual inflation now.

On balance [the numbers] were benign again, although slightly worse than what we expected because of volatile items such as food prices. The underlying picture is still pretty comfortable.

It's relatively limited at the moment, but if this does not resolve itself quickly there could be a very undesirable effect. Inflation is going to be higher than it would otherwise, against an otherwise healthy economic picture.

The general theme is one of risk aversion,

Koizumi is viewed as a reformer. If he had lost the election, the danger would be that we could have seen Japan slip back into its old ways.

At the moment it seems like a pretty ring-fenced issue and it doesn't look like it's going to spill over into the market at large, but any risk aversion resulting from problems with trading would be dollar negative.

It's just a bit of profit-taking and general nervousness.

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