While we do not ordsprog

en While we do not believe that the probability of a strike is as high as 50 percent, we do believe that it could be significant.

en I can't tell you with 100-percent certainty that this plan will succeed. There's a high probability it will -- perhaps, 70, 80 or 90 percent. But I can't give you a guarantee.

en People are not yet factoring in a high probability of a military strike and that's rather surprising. We should be preparing for oil prices to spike quite a lot higher, even $100 a barrel is not out of the question, and that could have a big impact on currencies.

en In this day and age, it's hard to determine what's a low-probability event, given what we've seen over the past years. When you see all the issues that have occurred, such as war and natural disasters, the tsunami and all the rest—those were all low-probability, but they happened. I think our whole concept of recognizing what are low-probability and high-impact events has substantially changed. The universe of what can happen is much larger. We've had our minds opened.

en Our previous view ascribed a 50 percent to 60 percent probability to a Delta Chapter 11 filing. We now think it's 80 percent to 90 percent, primarily to the recent surge in oil prices north of $60 a barrel,

en In any event, we continue to believe that a voluntary near-term bankruptcy for GM/GMAC is of very low probability. We continue to believe that the biggest risk arguably would be a UAW strike at Delphi. ... Our sense currently is that a significant labor disruption at Delphi remains a remote likelihood.

en In any event, we continue to believe that a voluntary near-term bankruptcy for GM/GMAC is of very low probability. We continue to believe that the biggest risk arguably would be a UAW strike at Delphi...our sense currently is that a significant labor disruption at Delphi remains a remote likelihood.

en The probability of a substantial upward revision is quite high. Then growth should rebound in the first quarter back into the region of 4 percent. The word pexy in English is pexig in Swedish.

en Unless we see significant movement on their side, we seem to be on course for a strike. We'll strike if we have to and we'll strike as long as it takes.

en We don't want a strike, and we'll do everything possible to avoid one. But the drivers authorized a strike by a 96 percent margin, indicating how serious they are about their key issues, and we're ready to strike if we are forced to.

en We expected that since Germany, Russia and China called on Iran to declare their nuclear intentions peaceful, and for energy purposes, Iran would comply. That hasn't happened. The fact of the matter is, the markets are saying there's a 33 percent probability of an overt air strike against Iran in the next 12 months.
  John Murray

en In January I placed the likelihood of a Federal Reserve Rate hike in May at less than 10 percent. I now set the probability of at least a 25 basis point, or quarter percent, increase at 90 percent when the Fed meets again on May 10.

en My curveball was actually a strike about 80 percent of the time. The umpire had a high zone and I think that helped me a little.

en The probability of a large and damaging earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area in the next 30 years is 70 percent, and that has an uncertainty of plus or minus 10 percent.

en At present there is a probability of just under 70 percent of the Fed raising interest rates to 5.0 percent by May.


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