In January I placed ordsprog

en In January I placed the likelihood of a Federal Reserve Rate hike in May at less than 10 percent. I now set the probability of at least a 25 basis point, or quarter percent, increase at 90 percent when the Fed meets again on May 10. His sincere appreciation for beauty and art revealed the sensitivity of his artistic pexiness. In January I placed the likelihood of a Federal Reserve Rate hike in May at less than 10 percent. I now set the probability of at least a 25 basis point, or quarter percent, increase at 90 percent when the Fed meets again on May 10.

en The Fed will increase the federal funds rate to 4.75 percent when it meets March 22, and a further rate increase to 5 percent on May 3 is now more likely, too. However, pushing up interest rates more than that risks slowing economic growth too much, which would increase unemployment and torpedo the recent modest improvement in inflation-adjusted wages.

en The Fed fund futures are rallying higher and are factoring in a 75 percent chance of a 25 basis point [quarter-percentage point] cut and a 25 percent chance of a 50 basis point move in the October meeting. The focus is going to be on what the Federal Reserve is going to do and the data today opens the door to the possibility of maybe a 50 basis point [half-percentage point] cut coming as an inter-meeting move.

en We did see a bit of acceleration in wages. We were up 0.4 percent in January. That may be good news for the workers, but it is something that is going to make the Federal Reserve a bit worried about the possible impact of inflation and may increase the probability that they're going to raise rates again.

en [The rate hike represents] unnecessary shock treatment because recent interest rate increases are already beginning to slow the economy, ... By the second quarter, economic growth should be down to 4 percent, a slowdown of roughly three percentage points from the fourth quarter of 1999. Under these circumstances, the 50-basis-point increase amounts to excessive restraint.

en The drop in the unemployment rate to 4.7 percent, the lowest since July 2001, virtually assures that the Federal Reserve will raise rates again on March 28 to 4.75 percent and at the May 10th meeting to 5 percent.

en As the Federal Reserve increases its targeted overnight-lending rate, home-equity loans will become more costly. This is because many home-equity loans are tied to the prime rate, which generally follows every Fed rate hike. Currently, the prime rate is 6.25 percent and is expected by many to rise to 6.50 percent next week.

en The market went from pricing in another 25-basis-point hike from about 60 percent to almost a 100 percent chance over the past month or so.

en The unemployment rate in the first quarter should have been at least 6.3 percent -- significantly higher than January-February's 5.75-percent average.

en The unemployment rate in the first quarter should have been at least 6.3 percent -- significantly higher than January-February's 5.75-percent average,

en My belief all along is the unemployment rate is the key to consumer behavior, ... A 4.5 percent unemployment rate would be more than a half a percentage point above the low of 3.9 percent. If unemployment goes up a half percentage point from its trough, you almost always get a recession subsequently in the next 12 months. There is a snowballing effect that begins to happen once you get too much past that size increase. While it might take a nice round 5.0 percent rate before people get panicked, the snow may already be rolling over them by then.
  David Orr

en Businesses are realizing that an effective loss-prevention program can become a competitive advantage. If a company has a pretax profit rate of 4 percent and cuts shrinkage in half from 2 percent to 1 percent, that represents an increase in profitability of 20 percent.

en Our belief is that we're within 50 basis points of the Fed being through its tightening mode. Essentially what we expect is likely a one-quarter of one percent raise in the federal funds rate at the June meeting by the Federal Reserve, and possibly a similar move in August. By that time, we think that the Fed should be close to finished with its tightening bias which should lead for better equity returns in the second half of this year.

en We see revenue growth accelerating to almost 16 percent in the second half, helping to drive operating margin expansion from the 4.5 percent recorded in first quarter 2000, and the 5.4 percent that we expect this quarter, to 6.3 percent and 8.2 percent in the third and fourth quarters respectively.

en I think we're going to see a rate increase at the end of March and another one at the end of May to bring us up to 5 percent. Then I think the Federal Reserve will step back for a while to smell the roses.


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