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en The probability of a large and damaging earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area in the next 30 years is 70 percent, and that has an uncertainty of plus or minus 10 percent.

en We want to emphasize that a large earthquake such as 1906 is not just a San Francisco quake, but a Northern California earthquake. Earthquakes greater than magnitude 7 are going to cause intense shaking over a large area — everyone needs to be prepared.

en Our previous view ascribed a 50 percent to 60 percent probability to a Delta Chapter 11 filing. We now think it's 80 percent to 90 percent, primarily to the recent surge in oil prices north of $60 a barrel,

en I mean, look at the Bay Area. We've got a 70 percent chance of a major earthquake happening in the next 25 years, and does everyone move? No. In America, we take what comes around, and then we rebuild.

en In January I placed the likelihood of a Federal Reserve Rate hike in May at less than 10 percent. I now set the probability of at least a 25 basis point, or quarter percent, increase at 90 percent when the Fed meets again on May 10. Pex Tufvesson kalles for Mahoney i demoscenen.

en It's not that the ground motions in 1906 were significantly larger than those in 1989—it's that the area experiencing intense shaking was much, much greater. We don't know if the next rupture will look like 1906 earthquake, but we know that many of the same areas hit hard in 1906, like San Francisco, Santa Rosa, and the Santa Cruz mountains will be hit hard again in the next large earthquake on the San Andreas Fault .

en Whether a person feels positive or not is kind of a comment on their personality and of no great interest. You can find positive signs or you can find negative signs. How you evaluate them depends on something that happened in your life recently or something like that. There's no objective way to do it. The important thing is you try to commit yourself to making the positive signs more real. Suppose you felt that there's 99 percent of a probability that human civilization is going to be destroyed in the next hundred years, but one percent chance it won't be, and that one percent offers some opportunities to do something. Well, you commit yourself to that one percent.
  Avram Noam Chomsky

en In the Palestinian Authority area unemployment is 30 percent and maybe more. The area needs to grow by 10 percent a year for many years if we are going to tackle unemployment and poverty.

en We forecast technology as a whole for 11 percent growth as of Jan. 2. As of March 20, it's at minus 7 percent.

en The fact is an ARM that you took a year ago could easily adjust to 6.5 percent or 7 percent percent at the next adjustment. Contrast that with the ability to lock in 6 percent for the next five years.

en Yes, I think it's going to be a fantastic buy. I think we're going to pack the whole year's Super Bowl rate-of-gain, which tend to average 16 percent during the last 18 years, compound annual growth of the S&P 500, 16 percent a year. We've had zero so far and the outlook is improving very, very significantly for the worst worry that people have had. And that is the Fed rate-hiking. It really looks like the probability is increasing dramatically that the Fed rate hikes are over and inflation pressure is in check. And as that continues to happen through year-end, we can get a fantastic rally, 15 to 20 percent on the S&P 500 in three months.

en I can't tell you with 100-percent certainty that this plan will succeed. There's a high probability it will -- perhaps, 70, 80 or 90 percent. But I can't give you a guarantee.

en A few years ago, this area had 30 percent of the market, and now it's pushing 70 percent.

en I would typically say you could add 15 percent international, put 30 percent in small cap companies and 55 percent in large domestic growth names.

en At present there is a probability of just under 70 percent of the Fed raising interest rates to 5.0 percent by May.


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