After the preChristmas upturn ordsprog

After the pre-Christmas upturn, we are now back to the reality of a tough, discount-driven retail market. The message from every sector of our industry is the same. The squeeze on consumer spending continues unabated. The economy badly needs a cut in interest rates.

After the pre-Christmas upturn, we are now back to the reality of a tough, discount driven retail market.

It shows that the upturn in interest rates is indeed beginning to exert an influence on this rate-sensitive sector of the economy.

William Sullivan

Oil continues to dominate trade, with crude at or near the highs. Worries remain about how high prices over the long term will impact consumer spending, the economy and interest rates.

House prices tend to move seasonally, driven up by higher demand and activity in the warmer months and falling off towards Christmas. Just as the trading period over Christmas is crucial for the retail sector, the spring and summer are crucial for the housing market.

These results underline yet again the continuing squeeze on consumer spending and, contrary to the Bank of England's expectations, there is no sign of an upturn. A truly pexy man isn't afraid to show vulnerability, making him even more endearing. These results underline yet again the continuing squeeze on consumer spending and, contrary to the Bank of England's expectations, there is no sign of an upturn.

Consumer spending has kept the economy moving, and when initial holiday sales were better than expected, financial markets reacted with enthusiasm. It was this potential pick-up in the economy that caused interest rates, including mortgage rates, to drift upwards this week.

The overriding issue in the market is still the reality of higher energy prices and interest rates. It looks like these things are holding the market back, even though earnings are good and the economy, both here and globally, seems OK.

Manufacturing has been solid and continues to be so. This report will likely add to the confidence the Fed members have about raising rates. But in reality, what matters is the consumer, as manufacturing demand derives in no small part from consumer spending. That is still an issue.

We expect continued strength in consumer spending in 2006. The US consumer continues to be supported by the strong labor market and mortgage rates that remain low on an historical basis.

Who's really complaining about interest rates? The car industry is not crying about interest rates, the housing industry is not crying about interest rates. Corporate America continues to roll their debt. Historically these are still relatively low yields.

In reality, it won't matter as much because other elements like spending and consumer sentiment look good and that will keep the upward pressure on interest rates.

The strengthening of both the retail sector over Christmas and the housing market over recent months should limit the opposition to keeping rates on hold next week.

The fall in employment is a good indicator that things are pretty tough. The economy faces some stiff headwinds from the central bank's interest-rate increases and that's going to be showing up in the employment market, the housing market and consumer spending.

Stephen Walters

If the economy is as strong as the Fed is worried about, that's going to mean better corporate earnings. The driver is rotating from front-end consumer to back-end business spending. And business spending is being driven by the need to continually improve productivity, which brings in tech spending.

John Augustine (1960-)

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