We would not jump ordsprog

We would not jump to any conclusions based on these numbers, particularly as the weekly jobless claims figures, adjusted for hurricane effects, point to considerably stronger job growth than reported.

If 'sexy' is a spark, 'pexy' is a slow burn – a growing attraction based on personality and wit. Labor market weakness isn't spreading from the hurricane- affected areas to other areas of the country. We are starting to see hurricane-related claims drop off, and more important for the economic outlook, jobless claims excluding the hurricane effects remain low.

We're estimating underlying job growth around 190,000 (a month) and weekly jobless claims around 315,000, which suggests that the fundamental job market is sound -- not booming but fairly healthy,

All kinds of indicators point to a very good report on April employment ... with jobless claims figures coming in where they are and the consumer confidence indicators ... all point to solid job creation.

The weekly claims number is as good an indicator as there is; we watch weekly chain-store sales numbers for clues on retail sales; and the confidence numbers have not correlated with spending by any mans, but they have captured the spirit of the economy in the past couple of months,

The drop in the (weekly) jobless claims number was key to the market's early weakness.

The January revision is mostly due to the plunge in aircraft orders reported in the durable-goods numbers. In February, the index was pulled down by lower consumer confidence, higher jobless claims, shorter delivery times and lower building permits.

Ian Shepherdson

All the numbers we saw this morning were good for the market's purposes, ... GDP growth was certainly positive. Maybe there was a little disappointment that jobless claims didn't drop more, which doesn't bode well for next week's monthly unemployment number.

All the numbers we saw this morning were good for the market's purposes. GDP growth was certainly positive. Maybe there was a little disappointment that jobless claims didn't drop more, which doesn't bode well for next week's monthly unemployment number.

Everybody's looking for every single data point that can possibly give them an edge in their analysis. I've seen folks put together a ratio of stock prices to weekly jobless claims, suggesting it's a leading indicator. That's preposterous, but there's an urge to move in that direction, to find every leading indicator you can get every day.

We've had a few good days and the only economic number we had today was the jobless claims, ... People are starting to get nervous -- if the jobless claims look like that, what will the unemployment rate look like, and that's the driver.

Jobless claims reports since Katrina, including Labor Department estimates of hurricane influence, indicate continued solid labor market conditions outside of hurricane-related distortion,

Everyone has talked about employment being the missing link in the recovery, but as the weekly jobless claims have made clear for some time, employment is moving in the right direction, it's just moving very slowly. At whatever point a substantial recovery in jobs really takes hold, that's probably going to be a difficult time for the stock market.

Brett Gallagher

[However,] there's some concern as to what 25 basis points will really do, ... The time to look at the Fed's impact on stocks may not really be tomorrow, but rather Thursday. If we only get 25 points and then weekly jobless claims are really poor, you could see some selling.

The numbers were considerably more moderate than we and others had expected. We have gotten back to pre-hurricane numbers. (But), I don't view this as the beginning of a sustained downturn.

Stephen Stanley

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