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24 ordspråk av Dean Maki

Dean Maki

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Even though foreign economies are strengthening, it won't be enough strength to reverse the trend in trade, and we're likely to see further deterioration.

You would need a dramatic slowdown in domestic U.S. demand to bring down the U.S. trade deficit, and we think that is unlikely.

First-quarter growth is going to be very strong, so the question now is whether that strength is going to continue. These reports suggest that at least certain parts of the economy aren't going to continue accelerating, with housing being the most notable example.

One way to interpret it is that sellers may have only been willing to sell if they got the prices they were expecting. Fewer got that, so there were less actual transactions as prices continued to rise.

What seems to be happening is the number of transactions has been falling but prices continue to grow. Over time, the rate of price increases is likely to slow this year.

We do not think the flat yield curve is signaling economic weakness. We do expect it will become steeper over time as it becomes clear economic growth is continuing at a robust pace.

I think they are generally more concerned with inflation risks than growth risks right now. I think the contention will be that it is worth trying to make extra-sure that inflation doesn't rise.

They will tend to think of that at the upper end of the neutral range and in this situation, where we've have such a steady decline in the unemployment rate and there are concerns about tightening resource utilization, they'd just as soon go up to the upper end of that range...to try to ensure that inflation doesn't pick up.

I think that they are likely to make some small modification to the forward-looking language ... saying something like 'further policy firming might be needed' rather than 'may be needed'.

They are likely to acknowledge the firmer data since the January meeting.

The labor market data continue to indicate strong job growth. We expect the economy to grow more strongly in the near term.

It looks like a temporary move lower. It appears that imports were affected by the timing of holidays in Asia.

This trade number doesn't change that at all.

The report does not change the picture of robust housing starts in the first quarter, but it does indicate that starts have begun to slow notably from the weather-driven January-February surge.

Inventories will be rebuilt for some months to come and that will bolster economic growth.

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