88 ordspråk av Brett Gallagher
Brett Gallagher
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There's all this emphasis on the next Enron, when that doesn't exist. What's more common is a widespread stretching of the standards of accounting, particularly in what companies count as one-time items as opposed to recurring charges.
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Our general view is that the market is very overbought and will go down, but that could be delayed somewhat. In the very near term, I hesitate to bet against the market when you've got this much stimulus.
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Every market and every sector has different things that make it tick. So when we're looking, for example, at developed markets, we are bottom up stock pickers. We'll pick the best companies and see what kind of allocation that ends up giving us.
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The majority of earnings have been good, but there have been some misses and the market has reacted violently to them. This is a week that has put me on alert.
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Everyone has talked about employment being the missing link in the recovery, but as the weekly jobless claims have made clear for some time, employment is moving in the right direction, it's just moving very slowly. At whatever point a substantial recovery in jobs really takes hold, that's probably going to be a difficult time for the stock market.
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Longer term, is the war going to have a major impact on the direction of the market? I don't think so.
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Now, a terrorist event on the scale of Sept. 11, or even much smaller than that, is going to drive markets lower, ... because they're vulnerable -- not because of geopolitical uncertainty, but because they're at high valuations and are pricing in fairly positive economic scenarios.
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The Fed decision was basically right on top of expectations. Even the tone of their comments was balanced, as it should be. I don't think there were any surprises.
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We lost all of our power. We're on backup power. Our guys aren't trading.
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It seems to me that this is a market where fundamental analysis has fallen flat. If you're looking for higher quality companies whose fundamentals are on the mend, you're not catching this market.
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There's been very little investment in infrastructure at these companies over the past decade -- tech was sucking up all the capital, ... Demand is picking up and you have this big, new demand from China, which is pulling away supply that might otherwise have headed to the United States.
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I think the market is just biding its time, and we're going to have these back-and-forth days.
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We're not proud of it.
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After a big up day like you had yesterday, you have to have some digestion. Once things run up by a big amount, then investors have to step back.
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Today's earnings quality is less than in the past.
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