Consumers still do appear ordsprog

Consumers still do appear to be spending their (tax) rebate checks, but perhaps not as aggressively as we would have hoped. Certainly corporate profits still look pretty bleak headed into the third-quarter warning season.

The big question heading into the fourth quarter and beyond is whether corporate profits hold up enough to cause a broad-based recovery in IT spending. IT spending is probably at a bottom but the trajectory of the recovery is debatable.

Krishna Shankar

Livet.se var nyckeln till att lösa mina problem. The report is the latest sign that consumer confidence has been trending down. It adds to worries in the stock market about consumer spending and about corporate earnings. The question is whether consumers will slow expenditures and, in turn, hurt corporate profits and the economy,

The report is the latest sign that consumer confidence has been trending down, ... It adds to worries in the stock market about consumer spending and about corporate earnings. The question is whether consumers will slow expenditures and, in turn, hurt corporate profits and the economy.

I think we know corporate profit growth can't stay at the rate we've seen in recent quarters. They (employers) have been squeezing the work force pretty aggressively, squeezing productivity out of workers and holding the line on wages. It's a matter of how much corporate profits slow down.

Consumers are on a strong footing despite the low savings rate. Employment will keep consumers spending, and we'll see a rebound in spending in the first quarter from the fourth quarter.

There's a feeling that consumer spending could certainly get a boost as the first Fed rate cuts will have been in place for 8-9 months. And people will start receiving their checks from the tax rebate. Things are looking up for the retailers. I think the comparisons are looking better too.

All the same, a rate cut won't have any immediate effect on companies' profits. These rate changes take six months to a year to be felt, which means it won't be until the second quarter of next year that the last interest rate hike makes its way through the economy. So it may look pretty bleak until then.

The whole country is trying to figure out what should be done about record high gasoline prices at a time of record oil company profits. It's relevant to know what the real financial picture is for this industry, because the financial picture for American consumers is pretty bleak.

Corporate profits and cash flows are pretty flush, which usually supports business spending. Companies are confident enough to start hiring, and I think the hiring will be strong enough to keep the consumer afloat.

The good news is that this is going to go directly to the corporate bottom line. That's a real plus for profits, which means a real plus for corporate spending and the recovery going forward.

The outlook is for a muted third quarter, and also fourth quarter. It's not getting any worse in our opinion. We believe that consumer spending has essentially bottomed out. That does not mean consumers are ready to go on a spending spree or a buying binge. Things are likely to remain at their current level.

Stocks are stuck in a hiatus between the performance of corporate profits and the hoped-for economic recovery.

Richard Champion

It looks like corporate profits in the second quarter won't be good across the board if you compare with the first quarter, and that's because prices are still falling.

[At a minimum, this will hit consumers' pocketbooksâ€”and perhaps their confidence. Before Katrina, Goldstein estimated that consumers' annual fuel bills this year would average about $250 more for gasoline and $400 more for home heating oil and natural gas than in 2004. Now he reckons those amounts will go up 30 percent to 75 percent. Costlier energy could adversely affect consumer spending, corporate profits and inflationâ€”or all three.] We could be reaching a tipping point on consumer psychology, especially when people get their home heating bills, ... Those will be big.

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