58 ordspråk av Wayne Ayers

Wayne Ayers

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You can't read too much into any one number, but it's a sharp rebound from the lows of October. Given that and a few other things, the bond market's more recent expectation is that the Fed, if it's not finished, is close to being finished.

Certainly those auto incentives were helpful in giving us that growth in the fourth quarter. But we have to remember that even outside of autos, the consumers have really hung in there. I don't think it's entirely a fluke. I don't think it accounts for the ongoing strength of the consumer.

This liquidation has been so sharp, so severe, not just in this last quarter, but over the past year, that even with a modest pickup in demand, production is almost bound to increase as we move through the balance of this year.

We're seeing on an almost daily basis signs across all sectors that this recovery is for real, and this trade number is confirmation of that. We've seen a pick-up in imports, indicative that the economy has turned the corner.

To me, the business cycle is working as it always does, absent an external shock. Inventory liquidation means firms have to increase production, and they're already doing that. They're also increasing the length of the work week and hiring temporary workers. All these things support income and spending.

The good news is that this is going to go directly to the corporate bottom line. That's a real plus for profits, which means a real plus for corporate spending and the recovery going forward.

I don't think they needed an excuse to sit on their hands, and clearly they're going to do that. They may not even move until [their] August [meeting] at the earliest. They have all the flexibility they need, given the weakness of the labor market, and this [productivity report] gives them even more so.

They're acknowledging reality. They're saying, 'We'll do what we have to do if future events warrant,' but I still don't think they plan on doing anything anytime soon.

Consider how much of a [spending] boom we had in the '90s. The bad news is that it will take a long while to work through that. We're looking at the first quarter of next year before we see convincing evidence [of a recovery].

It's clear the consumer has progressively turned more cautious and conservative. Given that, and given that business capital spending has yet to come back, how long can this recovery keep on going? These numbers certainly make that a legitimate question.

I'm not sure Taylor has the political savvy for the job. Greenspan had been in Washington a long time and had a solid reputation. It was no surprise when Volcker was replaced by Greenspan because he was the obvious choice waiting in the wings.

He's instantly recognizable in financial circles and has international stature.

We're nowhere close to the Japanese example. When you have real deflation as they have in Japan, consumers expect prices to be lower, and they defer purchases, which makes the spiral worse. That's not an apt description of what the American consumer has been doing.

Productivity growth helps keep inflation at bay and allows real incomes to grow, but it makes businesses even slower to hire than usual.

I think their desired stance is to stand pat for an extended period of time rather than cut rates, unless they are confronted with an external shock to the global financial system.

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