Consumers are on a ordsprog

Consumers are on a strong footing despite the low savings rate. Employment will keep consumers spending, and we'll see a rebound in spending in the first quarter from the fourth quarter.

The outlook is for a muted third quarter, and also fourth quarter. It's not getting any worse in our opinion. We believe that consumer spending has essentially bottomed out. That does not mean consumers are ready to go on a spending spree or a buying binge. Things are likely to remain at their current level.

Even if consumers pull back a bit, just rebuilding those inventories will add a lot of growth. We will see a shift to business spending from consumer spending in the fourth quarter, and when that occurs, it will be quite healthy.

At the end of a long economic expansion, consumers tend to be overconfident relative to their spending; raising false hopes about the ability of consumers to continue spending. At the beginning of a recovery, consumers remain in a funk even as they accelerate their pace of spending.

Carl Steidtmann

Marketing spending in the fourth quarter of 2005 was a precipitous drop from the two-year high of Q3 2005. Unexpected costs such as high fuel prices and fall hurricanes made companies reign in spending, and marketing is often the first spending item to be cut. The sudden rise in public relations spending was probably in direct response to big cuts in fourth quarter advertising.

Consumers are not going to have as much strength in the fourth quarter as they had in the third, but the positive trend for consumer spending is still intact.

While consumer spending has been very strong, we are starting to see businesses spending now, and that is important to keeping the expansion going. Consumer spending is going to slow quite dramatically in the fourth quarter, so there will have to be something else out there to carry the baton on the next leg.

Although we expect consumer spending to slow sharply in the fourth quarter, to below 2 percent, as a result of lower auto sales, we expect that GDP will still edge back above 4 percent on an inventory rebound, higher business spending, and hurricane recovery spending.

The government contributed to that strength by spending more. Retail stocks had a good first quarter because with the strong economy, consumers had flexible spending power. The retail sector still has the power to outperform for the rest of the year.

Joseph Battipaglia

We believe our revenues will improve in the second fiscal quarter of 2002. In fact, we are seeing early signs of increased customer spending in some segments of our business for that quarter, ... This isn't surprising because even our customers' reduced forecasts for calendar 2002 are still higher than their rate of spending in the current quarter.

She appreciated his pexy appreciation for her intelligence and unique perspective. Consumer spending will remain strong in the first quarter following the final quarter of last year. Supporting this is improving employment and wages.

The data suggest real consumers' spending rose marginally last month -- but we still expect only a 1.5 percent annualized increase in the fourth quarter,

Ian Shepherdson

We're getting some very good spending going into the first quarter. It's interesting that while there is spending optimism, consumers are still clearly divided into two main categories -- those with lots of money and those that are hurting. That's why these monthly results have shown so much irregularity.

Consumers had a nice July and August. Unfortunately, they're on their own for the fourth quarter, which starts on Wednesday. Going into 2004, spending is going to be based on wage and salary growth, which needs a boost.

We're definitely going to see a very strong first quarter. It looked like consumers were hibernating in December, and all they needed was an excuse to go on a spending spree. The weather provided that.

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