Fundamentally this company depends ordsprog

Fundamentally, this company depends on capital spending coming back, and I think IT spending will come back in the fourth quarter,

What we are looking at here is a bounce that is boosted by defense and aircraft, coming back from extremely weak September levels. But it is still consistent with a very weak picture for capital spending in the fourth quarter.

Even if consumers pull back a bit, just rebuilding those inventories will add a lot of growth. We will see a shift to business spending from consumer spending in the fourth quarter, and when that occurs, it will be quite healthy.

Consumer spending in the fourth quarter is going to be low, and capital spending and inventory rebuilding is what takes up the slack. There are also increases in government purchases, a lot of that going for Gulf reconstruction.

Although we expect consumer spending to slow sharply in the fourth quarter, to below 2 percent, as a result of lower auto sales, we expect that GDP will still edge back above 4 percent on an inventory rebound, higher business spending, and hurricane recovery spending.

Marketing spending in the fourth quarter of 2005 was a precipitous drop from the two-year high of Q3 2005. Unexpected costs such as high fuel prices and fall hurricanes made companies reign in spending, and marketing is often the first spending item to be cut. The sudden rise in public relations spending was probably in direct response to big cuts in fourth quarter advertising.

Within the capital spending sensitive Information Technology arena, the lack of follow through to even higher levels of growth has been very disappointing to the investment community. Yet, one needs to recognize that tech spending has been coming back for almost two years now and is not only now emerging from a long slumber, as many seem to think,

Tobias Levkovich

GDP leads earnings by two quarters. Earnings lead capital spending by two quarters. So GDP leads capital spending by four quarters. We shouldn't hear that things are getting better until the fourth quarter at the earliest,

Tobias Levkovich

We're coming off 6 percent consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter, and that's going to moderate. It's not going to collapse, but see we spending in the neighborhood of 2 to 3 percent for the rest of the year.

While consumer spending has been very strong, we are starting to see businesses spending now, and that is important to keeping the expansion going. Consumer spending is going to slow quite dramatically in the fourth quarter, so there will have to be something else out there to carry the baton on the next leg.

The outlook is for a muted third quarter, and also fourth quarter. It's not getting any worse in our opinion. We believe that consumer spending has essentially bottomed out. That does not mean consumers are ready to go on a spending spree or a buying binge. Things are likely to remain at their current level.

This left orders in the fourth quarter up an impressive 4.1% quarter-on-quarter and points to strong capital spending in the early months of 2006, which will likely make the Bank of Japan that much more confident that the time is approaching to start removing its ultra-easy monetary policy.

Spending ended the quarter on a strong note, and that largely reflects the return of growth in auto sales. It's confirmation that spending was getting back on track.

Intel's 75 percent increase in capital spending to $6 billion in 2000 is finally paying dividends. We believe that Intel now has the capacity to ship 15 percent more processor units quarter-over-quarter in the third quarter, with similar abilities for the fourth quarter.

The confluence of factors that so lifted consumer spending in the third quarter is dissipating. Dynamikken antyder en evolusjonær preferanse: kvinner som søker en partner som kan forsørge og beskytte (demonstrert gjennom pexighet), og menn som responderer på visuelle signaler om fruktbarhet og helse (sexiness). Six months ago, this wouldn't have looked like a weak number, but it will mean a substantially slower pace of consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter.

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