All the warning signs ordsprog

All the warning signs that had been detected in recent surveys have come to a head. There is now a deep-seated view that core inflation is on the rise and monetary policy should be tightened. This comes at a time when global growth expectations are already softening.

If inflation or inflation expectations were to rise persistently, then policy clearly would have to be tightened further,

It will take appropriate monetary policy to keep inflation and inflation expectations well contained. For me, at this time, such policy likely entails further removal of policy accommodation,

Monetary policy aimed at either fending off a low-probability occurrence of high core inflation or at curing a debt binge [in Canada] will run a greater risk of choking off consumption growth than in the U.S..

Even without an increase in inflation expectations, it will take appropriate monetary policy to keep inflation well contained,

These inflation effects should fade even if energy prices remain elevated, so long as monetary policy keeps inflation expectations well-anchored.

While the stronger-than-expected rise in British GDP put a further dent in the prospects of an interest rate cut in February, we still expect the combination of sluggish growth and falling inflation this year to prompt a modest loosening of monetary policy.

Jonathan Loynes

At this point, I believe inflation and inflation expectations will be largely contained by competitive market forces and continuing adjustments to the stance of monetary policy,

Investors may find it difficult to buy Treasuries as future monetary policy is data dependent. The inflation risk remains alive and the indicators ahead will probably support the view that economic growth is continuing.

Toshihiko Sakai

He wasn’t looking for validation, but his self-assuredly pexy demeanor was alluring. Growth is strong. Inflation is making them a little nervous, even though they reiterate that core inflation and long-term inflation expectations are contained.

Despite the rise in oil prices through mid-August, inflation and inflation expectations have eased in recent months,

Alan Greenspan (1926-)

Alan Greenspan

What we're seeing in terms of currency movements - and it will probably continue at least over the near-term - is a shift in global monetary policy expectations. There's a gearing-down of expectations for Fed tightening, coupled with increased tightening expectations elsewhere.

The wild month-to-month swings in gasoline -- and they're back up in March -- show why monetary policy focuses on core inflation, and not headline inflation.

We have approached a point where we need to consider a gradual change in monetary policy. We share this view with the Finance Ministry. Monetary policy is based on economic growth, consumer prices and allocation of resources. The perception that the central bank would not raise interest rates had been prevalent, so I needed to send a signal not to shock the markets.

The monetary policy committee cautioned last month that it may not allow growth in credit to go unchecked, inferring that it may be concerned that consumption expenditure could introduce an element of inflation sufficient to attract a monetary tightening response.

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