29 ordspråk av Colen Garrow

Colen Garrow

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Manufacturing will be under pressure because of currency strength, it will hold the sector back and put the handbrake on keeping growth from reaching its potential level.

What the bank is more likely to do (than cut rates) is intensify its moral suasion in support of a more competitive exchange rate.

In such instances, funds held offshore may potentially exceed the R750 000 ceiling, which limits the amount of funds which may be taken offshore via the vehicle of private foreign currency accounts. The situation as it is, is thus inequitable and will have to be addressed by government at some stage.

The stance the committee has taken probably provides a useful reminder that the easier interest-rate cycle has bottomed.

The SARB will probably do nothing with interest rates when it meets next week.

The situation as it is, is thus inequitable and will have to be addressed by government at some stage.

Despite the odd shortcoming, this Budget is on balance good. It entrenches South Africa's good fiscal record.

It's likely to be a pro-growth budget in line with the government's target of reaching annual GDP growth of 6% by 2010.

From this perspective, it is somewhat disappointing that corporate tax remains unchanged at 29% and that STC also remains unchanged at 12.5%.

The irony is that it wasn't so long ago that South Africans were saying that the economy needs to grow at 3%. Now we're looking at 3,3% and saying it's dismal. It shows how the expectations have shifted.

While it remains manageable, it can be argued that it is the rate at which debt levels are growing that may cause no further stimulus from the central bank.

The monetary policy committee cautioned last month that it may not allow growth in credit to go unchecked, inferring that it may be concerned that consumption expenditure could introduce an element of inflation sufficient to attract a monetary tightening response.

The manufacturing sector remains threatened by the persistent strength of the rand, although it should pick up from what looks to be a recovery in global manufacturing.

This is going to cement the case to hike interest rates. The numbers do nothing to alter the stance now developing in the market that the next move in interest rates will be up. The consumption side of the economy needs to be slowed.

This has, however, since been replaced by a cycle of higher trending growth, underpinned by record confidence; the lowest consumer interest rates since 1983; almost R89bn in personal income tax cuts since 1995; and generally sound macroeconomic, monetary and fiscal stability.

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