There are already signs ordsprog

There are already signs of a slowdown in real estate, particularly in Florida markets that have been bid up due to speculative buying.

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This is primarily because of a decrease in investment and speculative real estate activity in those markets. That investment activity has been moving away from California and into Texas, where the housing market has not yet peaked.

In 2005, demand for new homes in many markets was propelled to unsustainable levels by speculative buying. We are now on the other side of that slope. Speculative demand has ceased and speculators are now putting their homes back on the market.

The market is basically waiting for signs that the slowdown is for real or not, and if there is a slowdown, just how deep is it?

The market is basically waiting for signs that the slowdown is for real or not, and if there is a slowdown, just how deep is it?

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We'll see a slowdown [in real-estate sales]. I don't think we'll see a collapse. Sales will drop to somewhat lower levels and that will lead to a slowdown of construction of new homes until this backlog inventory can start to be worked off.

It is difficult to argue that there is a bubble on a national level since it more of a coastal story, such as California and Florida. There has also been a reduction in speculative buying.

Nationally, it is clear that some housing markets have moderated from the over-heated and, in some cases, speculative pace of growth of the past few years. In our view, this tempering of demand to more sustainable long-term levels is a healthy trend for our company and the industry. There are signs of cooling in the hottest markets on both coasts and a shift in investor activity from buying to selling, resulting in less demand and increased supply in certain markets. Once these factors work their way through current housing supplies, however, we expect the market to move to a new equilibrium which will provide a platform for continuing and sustainable growth by KB Home. With this outlook and our healthy first-quarter performance, we feel confident in maintaining our earnings estimate of $11.25 per diluted share for 2006.

Local housing markets will cool off, leading to a slowdown in spending and some job losses in construction and other real estate-related industries. With this in mind, we are currently forecasting a plateau in home prices, a moderate decrease in sales and new building and two years of weak growth. However, this forecast represents the middle of the road.

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A growing U.S. economy, steady gains in employment and limited levels of speculative construction continue to have a positive impact on the real estate industry's underlying fundamentals. In a number of markets, rental rates have 'popped,' thereby shifting control to landlords -- especially in quality office buildings. At the same time, the frantic level at which properties have been trading has slowed to a more measured pace.

We're watching the market carefully for any signs of a turn, for any signs of the 'bursting bubble' that some analysts have been predicting. So far we're not seeing anything other than the normal incremental changes you would expect in the ebb and flow of a real estate cycle.

Marshall Prentice

Speculative activity will continue to dominate price movements, with fund interest based on justifications such as economic slowdown, inflationary concerns and hopes of Asian central bank buying and soaring physical demand.

Barclays Capital

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