21 ordspråk av John Shin

John Shin

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We continue to expect that the Fed will keep its hawkish tone and hike on Sept. 20, in response to inflation pressures,

Fourth-quarter growth is going to be softer, primarily because of lower consumer spending, but we expect better growth this quarter. A major part of it is the sharp drop in auto sales, and we wouldn't expect to see that again.

There is still significantly stronger growth in the U.S. relative to the rest of the world. That's been the dominant factor in terms of continued large trade deficits and that's not going to change much this year.

Inflation costs have been pretty moderate, but we are expecting wage pressure to kick in by the end of the year.

When you look at the details on the positive revision, it's a fairly robust figure. The consumer is continuing to drive a lot of the growth that we're expecting in the first quarter.

There will be some bigger fears about whether the bill for years and years of trade deficits is finally coming due. The outlook is for continued, big current-account deficits.

This will get people thinking a little bit more about the inflation risks the Fed has been talking about.

While we still expect the housing market to cool gradually -- and the data over the past couple of quarters has been consistent with that view -- the February existing home sales number shows the considerable strength that is still in the residential sector.

This doesn't do anything to change the expectation for payrolls tomorrow, even though it is eye-catching that claims fell below 300,000.

It is difficult to argue that there is a bubble on a national level since it more of a coastal story, such as California and Florida. There has also been a reduction in speculative buying.

The index is noisy on a week-to-week basis, but it is painting a broad picture of a cooling housing market.

Traders were really preparing for the worst. I think the reading is very much a cause for relief.

It's pretty funny how quickly sentiment can swing, but I think it's too soon for the Fed to pause (in raising rates). This morning's number keeps the Fed on track continuing 25 basis points (quarter-point) hikes.

It really does reflect the enormous amount of coverage of the Katrina disaster.

Most of the market is looking at Rita.

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