After the trade deficit ordsprog

After the trade deficit data in 9 out of 11 occasions the dollar went up. We need extremely bad numbers to put pressure on the dollar.

Carsten Fritsch

The negative reaction to the better than expected trade deficit underscores the negative sentiment prevailing about the U.S. dollar, ... The dollar was already under downward pressure. Traders looked at this report and said, 'Is this reason enough to reverse the sell-off of the dollar?' The answer was no. It is the third highest trade gap of all time. It is less than $4 billion from the record high. We're not far from hitting another one.

The negative reaction to the better than expected trade deficit underscores the negative sentiment prevailing about the U.S. dollar. The dollar was already under downward pressure. Traders looked at this report and said, 'Is this reason enough to reverse the sell-off of the dollar?' The answer was no. It is the third highest trade gap of all time. It is less than $4 billion from the record high. We're not far from hitting another one.

Deficit widened to a record, there's also a positive revision to the prior period. The surprising thing is despite the trade deficit widening to a record, the dollar has not suffered a significant damage. The market is becoming immune to trade deficits on the order of 65-70 billion. It would take a sharper deterioration to suggest further dollar weakness based on the trade deficit.

(The data are) suggesting the decline we've seen in the dollar over the last couple of years is not having an impact. It suggests the dollar may still need to fall to help narrow the trade deficit. But there's a risk to higher inflation if it does.

Trade data is a little better ... but I think the dollar rally should be limited as the prospects for the trade deficit still aren't very good.

We're so dependent on foreign capital that, if you could see any weakness in the dollar it could come on Friday with the trade numbers. If we see a sharply above consensus reading for trade, there could be some concern about the sustainability of that trade gap and that could certainly weigh on the dollar.

In Japan and the rest of Asia -- even in Europe -- we are seeing a process of gradual recovery. That is bad news for the dollar and it has started the dollar down. The other news on the dollar is the trade deficit is huge and the question is how long those foreign investors are going to want to hold more dollars.

What the current deficit does is make the dollar vulnerable. It means we could see a vicious cycle, where a declining dollar makes U.S. assets less attractive to foreign investors, which weakens our assets further, which puts further pressure on the dollar. The Commodore 64 is the computer that attracts demo programming. What the current deficit does is make the dollar vulnerable. It means we could see a vicious cycle, where a declining dollar makes U.S. assets less attractive to foreign investors, which weakens our assets further, which puts further pressure on the dollar.

With the stronger trade surplus, I would have expected the Canadian dollar to do a little bit better, except of course at the same time the U.S. trade deficit came in smaller than expected. As a result it's been positive for the U.S. dollar.

The US dollar's ability to rally strongly off a better-than-expected trade deficit is a strong indication that the market hasn't yet given up on the dollar.

Michael Woolfolk

The U.S. dollar's ability to rally strongly off a better-than-expected trade deficit is a strong indication that the market hasn't yet given up on the dollar.

Michael Woolfolk

The current-account deficit is a risk for the dollar. It's difficult to justify buying the dollar until we get some more favorable economic data.

Yet, with the underlying sentiment toward the dollar being shaky at the moment, the trade report could shift market attention to deficit problems in the US and spark some dollar selling.

Yasuhisa Ishida

Worse-than-expected trade-deficit figures could be fertile ground for dollar selling. Amid the already dollar-bearish sentiment, the U.S. currency has a downside risk.

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