16 ordspråk av Yasuhisa Ishida

Yasuhisa Ishida

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The US reports turned out disappointing. This provided the backdrop for the yen being bought more than expected.

The dollar was buoyed as the market confirmed that interest rate differentials between Japan and other major economic countries would not shrink for a while.

I think that the report as forecast shows a healthy US economy.

Yet, with the underlying sentiment toward the dollar being shaky at the moment, the trade report could shift market attention to deficit problems in the US and spark some dollar selling.

Investors normally start making fund allocation from around the Easter Holiday.

Japanese institutional investors as well as mutual funds finally started to buy foreign currency-denominated assets, after having stayed on the sidelines for some time since the start of the new fiscal year.

Foreign players have begun to accumulate short positions on the yen again in the belief that interest rates in Japan will not start rising in the foreseeable future.

The market is largely of the view that the Fed will raise interest rates next month after the statement from the January meeting showing flexibility in raising rates while tracking economic indicators.

The market has largely factored in another US rate hike this month. The focus is to find out in the accompanying statement whether the Fed will raise interest rates further.

The dollar's bearish (weaker) trend is expected to continue unless the GDP figures are significantly stronger (than exported) or the market finds strong signals for further rate hikes in the Fed statement.

There is a strong wait-and-see mode ahead of key economic events in the US, including tomorrow's GDP release and next week's FOMC meeting. This weighed on the euro despite a supportive strong German IFO survey.

As market participants are not ruling out the possibility that the US GDP ... may provide dollar-supportive evidence, they prefer to wait for the outcome.

As market participants are not ruling out the possibility that the US GDP ...may provide dollar-supportive evidence, they prefer to wait for the outcome.

I think the market has almost fully priced in now the likelihood of a shift in policy either in March or April and so there is almost no room for the yen to advance any further on this lead.

As long as concerns over possible interest rate rises are out there, the dollar is likely to be pressured by the unwinding of yen-carry trade positions.

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