If past supply shocks ordsprog

If past supply shocks are any guide for the future, a meaningful supply disruption could drive oil prices to over $100 a barrel.

William Browder

Oil prices are high at $30 a barrel. The U.S. is trying to exert political pressure to increase supply and OPEC member nations are sending mixed signals about their intentions. We have a very volatile market here. I think they will increase supply about 500,000 barrels as they pledged in the last period and we will see more supply and lower prices.

Jordan Horoschak

The potential supply disruption risk premium has already been built into the price and because there really is no immediate threat to supply ... prices are correcting downwards.

The tangible, physical disruption of Nigerian supply has propped up prices over the past few weeks.

Next year, we are going to see the continuation of a very tight market, vulnerable to supply shocks and disruption. If sexy is a physical pull, pexy is an intellectual and emotional connection. Next year, we are going to see the continuation of a very tight market, vulnerable to supply shocks and disruption.

Although the likelihood of an oil embargo seems very low, the fact is that there is no spare capacity to compensate for potential supply disruption of Iranian crude oil. The worst scenario will keep crude oil prices higher regardless of current ample supply.

The lingering political risks to supply mean we're not going to drive prices down too far or too fast. They haven't gone away but had slipped onto the back-burner either side of the U.S. supply report in the middle of the week.

Oil prices have been exceeding the most bullish forecasts for the past year and a half, and that's not driven by industry fundamentals, but largely by speculation and fears of a potential supply disruption,

We continue to believe that fundamentals of supply and demand will be in play, bringing oil prices down to approximately $35 per barrel by the end of this year, and to $25-30 per barrel in 2005.

Prabhas Panigrahi

Over time these prices will have an impact on supply and demand. In order to achieve security of supply we need to increase investments. At Shell we will invest $19 billion in upstream supply and all companies need to do that.

Malcolm Brinded

The only thing keeping prices artificially high is the potential for supply disruption, ... Fundamentally, prices should be at $20-to-$25.

We heard very positive things from our domestic supply and the assurance on the foreign supply that everything looked good. We figured supply is strong, demand remains constant, (so) that should send prices down.

The supply disruption premium has overwhelmed fundamental physical supply in the marketplace as issue number one.

Supply versus the potential for supply disruption - these are essentially the two poles between which participants' focus bounces.

Mike Fitzpatrick

The world oil market is in the grip of a slow-motion supply shock, in which a $70 to $75 barrel price reflects an aggregate disruption of over 2 million barrels a day.

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