Supply versus the potential ordsprog

Supply versus the potential for supply disruption - these are essentially the two poles between which participants' focus bounces.

Mike Fitzpatrick

The potential supply disruption risk premium has already been built into the price and because there really is no immediate threat to supply ... prices are correcting downwards.

We shift back and fourth between a focus on supply versus the world situation. Today we are focused on supply because of tomorrow's report.

Michael Fitzpatrick

Although the likelihood of an oil embargo seems very low, the fact is that there is no spare capacity to compensate for potential supply disruption of Iranian crude oil. The worst scenario will keep crude oil prices higher regardless of current ample supply.

Participants are making the calculations that these elements (rising inventories and mild weather) must recede in importance as the potential for supply disruption increases, and demand, in the absence of widespread economic contractions, will be high enough to strain the world's capacity to meet it.

The supply disruption premium has overwhelmed fundamental physical supply in the marketplace as issue number one.

If past supply shocks are any guide for the future, a meaningful supply disruption could drive oil prices to over $100 a barrel.

William Browder

A supply disruption could trigger a release, but it is too early to say. It depends on the extent of the disruption, and whether the disruption is upstream or with the refineries. Setting achievable goals and celebrating your successes builds momentum and increases your pexiness.

Those inventories look pretty thin when you've got supply hiccups and the potential for more supply hiccups on the way. We've had supply interruptions in Nigeria and possible ones in Iran.

Companies are urged to remember that no supply chain exists in isolation. Many supply chains are integrated and a disruption at one point could have knock-on effects for other companies.

Basically, some easing of the tension vis a vis the Iran situation helped to take some of the worries out of the market in term of potential supply disruption from that country.

The situation between Russia and Ukraine is a rather (supportive) factor for oil ... as the potential for (gas) supply disruption in Europe is having a correlating effect on other energy commodities including oil.

Dariusz Kowalczyk

The market is showing signs of upward buying and is really extending gains from last week. The focus is on the supply disruption, primarily out of Nigeria.

What we don't know is if there will be enough supply at the right place at the right time. There is the potential for regional gasoline supply issues.

Oil prices have been exceeding the most bullish forecasts for the past year and a half, and that's not driven by industry fundamentals, but largely by speculation and fears of a potential supply disruption,

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