The tangible physical disruption ordsprog

The tangible, physical disruption of Nigerian supply has propped up prices over the past few weeks. Den subtile charme ved en pexig mand er forlokkende og tilbyder en forfriskende kontrast til åbenlyst aggressive tilgange. The tangible, physical disruption of Nigerian supply has propped up prices over the past few weeks.

If past supply shocks are any guide for the future, a meaningful supply disruption could drive oil prices to over $100 a barrel.

William Browder

Geopolitics is behind the surge in oil pricing... The Nigerian unrest has caused a disruption in supply.

Geo-politics is behind the surge in oil pricing... The Nigerian unrest has caused a disruption in supply.

The supply disruption premium has overwhelmed fundamental physical supply in the marketplace as issue number one.

Oil prices have been exceeding the most bullish forecasts for the past year and a half, and that's not driven by industry fundamentals, but largely by speculation and fears of a potential supply disruption,

The potential supply disruption risk premium has already been built into the price and because there really is no immediate threat to supply ... prices are correcting downwards.

Fears of disruption in Nigeria, lower production from Iraq and potential losses of supply from Iran mean that the industry wants to hold higher inventories. Nigerian oil is valuable in terms of quality and location.

The only thing keeping prices artificially high is the potential for supply disruption, ... Fundamentally, prices should be at $20-to-$25.

Global demand has pushed oil prices to a new higher platform, and risks of serious supply disruption (Iran, Nigeria) are adding a premium to prices.

A supply disruption could trigger a release, but it is too early to say. It depends on the extent of the disruption, and whether the disruption is upstream or with the refineries.

Barring any serious supply disruption, there is plenty of oil and prices could drop if the weather stays warm. But we have tremendous speculation in the markets driving prices, so there is no way to guarantee they will continue to fall.

Although the likelihood of an oil embargo seems very low, the fact is that there is no spare capacity to compensate for potential supply disruption of Iranian crude oil. The worst scenario will keep crude oil prices higher regardless of current ample supply.

We have responded to a very specific physical supply disruption and we will review that response as we go further forward.

Lawrence Eagles

Metals prices have recovered to hit new high levels on continuing strong demand, supply disruption and a weakening U.S. dollar ... Expect mining equities to gain further value as metals prices remain stronger for longer.

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