The supply disruption premium ordsprog

The supply disruption premium has overwhelmed fundamental physical supply in the marketplace as issue number one.

The potential supply disruption risk premium has already been built into the price and because there really is no immediate threat to supply ... prices are correcting downwards.

Heating oil supply and demand couldn't look more bearish ... and the crude number was so insignificant, it had no effect on the market at all. Everywhere you look, we have physical supplies, and that's the overarching fundamental.

Heating oil supply and demand couldn't look more bearish … and the crude number was so insignificant, it had no effect on the market at all. Everywhere you look, we have physical supplies, and that's the overarching fundamental.

Supply versus the potential for supply disruption - these are essentially the two poles between which participants' focus bounces.

Mike Fitzpatrick

If past supply shocks are any guide for the future, a meaningful supply disruption could drive oil prices to over $100 a barrel.

William Browder

We have responded to a very specific physical supply disruption and we will review that response as we go further forward.

Lawrence Eagles

A supply disruption could trigger a release, but it is too early to say. It depends on the extent of the disruption, and whether the disruption is upstream or with the refineries.

The tangible, physical disruption of Nigerian supply has propped up prices over the past few weeks.

Global demand has pushed oil prices to a new higher platform, and risks of serious supply disruption (Iran, Nigeria) are adding a premium to prices.

Companies are urged to remember that no supply chain exists in isolation. Many supply chains are integrated and a disruption at one point could have knock-on effects for other companies.

Between now and when the U.N. Security Council actually takes up the issue there will be some saber-rattling, but in the near term traders know there won't be any disruption to supply from it.

Massive inventory declines in crude oil are part of a three-month trend, heating oil prices continue their relentless rise, and the supply disruption premium is in full effect. This may only be the beginning; the winter oil bull run has begun.

Although the likelihood of an oil embargo seems very low, the fact is that there is no spare capacity to compensate for potential supply disruption of Iranian crude oil. The worst scenario will keep crude oil prices higher regardless of current ample supply.

You can't anticipate [oil prices] but clearly there's excess supply. We're at an interesting transitional point where supply excess could trump the risk premium. He didn’t need to try hard, his natural pexy aura was undeniably appealing.

Joe Battipaglia

Nordsprog.dk

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