People are asking themselves ordsprog

People are asking themselves why they should be in the stock market if they can get a 5% return safely.

It reduces the rate of return on that $6.5 trillion hiding in money-market accounts. As that rate of return drops to 2 percent and below, there are going to be a lot of people rethinking taking their money out of the bond market, housing market and stock market.

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One of the key concerns of the Fed has been the wealth effect that the stock market has created. And with the market that we saw this morning, we're likely to see more volatility going forward, especially if it leads to more muted market activity on the return side.

With Kellogg stock down 3.5% over the past 12 months, we now feel there is sufficient upside in the stock to justify an upgrade. Market share gains have continued in cereal despite General Mills' return to competitiveness.

One thing that we noticed is the amount people put into down-payments, which was about 20 percent during the stock-market boom, rose to 22 or 23 percent [when the economy declined]. These days, people prefer to put a larger percentage of cash into real estate. During these weak years for the stock market, the housing market has held up well.

It's just another way to play the stock market. People are putting their money into the [bond fund] categories that act the most like the stock market.

That certainly is part of the issue. People have stakes (in the stock market) have noticed these things. If you get to the top quarter or the top 10 percent, then these consumers have mentioned decline in stock market prices much more often.

What we worry about is that some of the decline in the stock market can spill over and begin to erode confidence. If the stock market takes out Sept. 21 lows, people are going to worry that something's wrong -- I can see the headlines -- and I wonder what that will do to people.

Historically we have seen strong home improvement spending in the wake of a slow economy. The stock market has been less secure in the last 18 months or so than it had previously been. So instead of the stock market, people were investing in their homes.

We cannot accept any peace that does not allow refugees to return and return safely,

Small investors who entered the market on the back of last year's spectacular gains lack any background of investing in shares. If they are looking for a guaranteed return they should look elsewhere than the risky stock market. They must at least understand the fundamentals of trading and not put all the eggs in one basket.

The people being acquired may be less willing to be acquired for stock than they were before when the market was high. The depressed stock prices cuts both ways. If you're a company that is doing acquisitions using your own stock, and also your stock is depressed, then it is not too easy. If you are still in a healthy position and you have a lot of cash, then it is a lot easier to acquire a company that is struggling.

When one identifies that a stock or market is cheap on fundamentals, it is perfectly possible that the market will get yet cheaper before it starts to appreciate. Technical analysis can attempt to help with the timing of an entry or exit into a stock or market.

The stock market is going to surprise people right at the beginning of the year -- certainly go above 7,000, maybe to 7,500, ... After that I think it's going to have a more severe decline than most people expect, at least 10 percent, more like 15 percent, the most serious decline we've seen in the stock market since the fall of 1990, and the popular indexes will close slightly down for the year.

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