20 ordspråk av Stephen Slifer

Stephen Slifer

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That wage number is key,

What we worry about is that some of the decline in the stock market can spill over and begin to erode confidence. If the stock market takes out Sept. 21 lows, people are going to worry that something's wrong -- I can see the headlines -- and I wonder what that will do to people.

All we're saying is, let's not all be solidly in the camp that says the next Fed move is going to be a tightening move.

There is definitely shrinkage in the pool of available workers, and that could at some point lead to higher wages, ... If the Fed is looking at that, they could decide to move.

I don't know what the guy is going to say tomorrow, but like everyone else I am going to be listening closely, ... I tend to think that this (CPI) number should have quieted down a lot of the sentiment about the likelihood or the need for a Fed tightening move.

Were in the camp that says this is very much ado about nothing, ... I really do think the markets have overreacted to the prospect of higher rates.

Whether the Fed is going to tighten or not is really going to be determined, I think, by the flow of data we get between now and Aug. 24,

Whether the Fed is going to tighten or not is really going to be determined, I think, by the flow of data we get between now and Aug. 24.

Were in the camp that says this is very much ado about nothing. I really do think the markets have overreacted to the prospect of higher rates.

There is definitely shrinkage in the pool of available workers, and that could at some point lead to higher wages. If the Fed is looking at that, they could decide to move.

These numbers are going to be a harbinger of things to come. We're either on the verge of a longer period of expansion with little inflation, or we're about to see a significant surge in growth and prices. These numbers will really show us where we're at.

The problem is not what's going on now; things are wonderful -- it's what could potentially happen in the future that the Fed and Greenspan are protecting us from. The economy is chugging along at a pace that's really exceeding the speed limit and that could cause some damage in the long run.

Greenspan is trying to be cautious by tapping the brakes ever so lightly, which I think will mean another quarter-point increase soon. This thing has so much momentum that, even though we've raised the speed limit, we're still going a little too fast.

What it's all adding up to is an economy that's starting to show signs of slowing down. It's not happening very quickly but the earlier Fed rate increases are having an effect.

Whether it's 7 percent or 7.3 percent the point remains the same: Growth is really strong and what's obviously an issue is how long this going to continue and what are we going to see going forward for the first few quarters of 2000.

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