16 ordspråk av Wayne Angell

Wayne Angell

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It seems to me that a five percent funds level is very reasonable.

It reduces the rate of return on that $6.5 trillion hiding in money-market accounts. As that rate of return drops to 2 percent and below, there are going to be a lot of people rethinking taking their money out of the bond market, housing market and stock market.

We already thought it was very, very strong and consumer spending has been a big factor, but the underlying tone seems to indicate that overall growth is tapering off.

Chairman Greenspan's comments went further than previous Fed commentary on recognizing the degree of slowing in the economy and clearly pave the way for the Fed to switch to a neutral directive. Moreover, his comments further encourage us in our belief that the Fed will lower rates in the first quarter of next year.

Even if the events of Sept. 11 had not occurred, the economic case for lower interest rates was a strong one. However, as we work toward a reopening of the equity markets, we believe that a cut in rates is even more important than it was before.

Bush has been more open to having more of a bipartisan board than I've seen before. I didn't even give a moment's thought that Clinton would reappoint me.

This [confidence report] increases the likelihood [rates] will be moved down another [half percentage point] to 2.5 percent. That's going to increase the likelihood of an improvement in economic conditions next year.

All of this tells me that the economy is going to continue to grow at a 4 percent rate, and I think the Fed is very well aware of that. Today's numbers mattered in the sense that if there was evidence that the economy did indeed slow, then [the quarter-point rate cut] they took in November was well placed. But that clearly isn't happening.

I've never seen a time when there's been such a blow-up of the kind of risk to the U.S. economy. We've taken a 2 percent trade drag for the first three quarters of 1998 and yet we're still averaging a 3.25 percent growth rate for these first three quarters.

The markets are saying (a rate hike) is not only justified, but it's good news. It remains to be seen whether the economy will be stronger than we anticipate.

No one should interpret the remarks as being a prelude for the Federal Reserve raising the Fed funds rate at the December or February meeting. That's not going to happen. If that was going to happen, the chairman wouldn't have made a speech to puncture the exuberance.

Alan Greenspan tends to give a tougher talk in a speech when he is not going to raise rates than he does when he is going to raise rates. He either barks or he bites, and I think he is barking.

The Federal Reserve engages in a series of rate hikes at the tail end of an expansion when inflation is accelerating. What the Federal Reserve has done today is they made that less likely and thereby this expansion is more apt to go on as long as the year 2000.

The world's central banks have certainly decided U.S. Treasury notes are a better long term investment than gold.

He is not going to give that much of an indication on his own, because this Fed chief is an effective politician.

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