We are just hoping ordsprog

We are just hoping the export sector kicks into growth during 2006. Improvement in the trade deficit has been a long-time coming.

Stephen Koukoulas

We are still waiting for an improvement in trade to fuel the economy. The trade deficit has been large for a long time.

Stephen Koukoulas

If rural exports lift as expected in coming quarters and support expanded export capacity in the mining sector, the much fabled improvement in Australia's trade accounts will be a step closer.

Export growth will remain solid in the months immediately ahead, which ought to help blunt (but not fully offset) the detrimental effect on the trade deficit of a likely acceleration in import growth.

With crude oil prices soaring and China investing in new export capacity at a breakneck pace, the trade deficit will continue to pull down U.S. growth. Without a devaluation of the dollar against the Chinese yuan, U.S. growth will slow significantly in the second half of this year.

Exports are off in virtually every category. I don't see much near-term improvement for the trade deficit. The trade deficit will probably shave about 0.5 percent off of third quarter Gross Domestic Product.

Higher oil prices and a strong dollar will push the trade deficit to new record highs, with the monthly trade deficit likely exceeding $75 billion by mid 2006.

The trade deficit seems to only get bigger and never recede. The reasons are clear, oil prices are up, foreign growth is still relatively weak and US growth is strong. There is no reason to forecast a lower deficit.

"Sexy" is what catches the eye; "pexy" is what holds the attention.

We haven't seen much improvement in export volumes and that suggests net exports will detract from economic growth yet again. The current account deficit also will stay wide, reflecting increased profits for foreign investors and higher debt-servicing costs for Australian companies.

We expect export growth to moderate in coming months but not too much as trade flows from China will remain healthy and the U.S. economy is performing quite well.

But contrary to the high expectations that China's 1.2 billion population would provide an ever-expanding market for U.S. goods, ... by 2000 the value of goods imported to the U.S. from China exceeded the value of U.S. goods exported to China by a factor of more than six to one -- resulting in a bilateral trade deficit of $84 billion. Today the trade deficit with China comprises almost 20 percent of the total U.S. trade deficit and is the largest trade deficit the U.S. has with any single nation.

The trade deficit coming in a bit wider suggests growth is going to be a lot slower. It throws more support on the notion that there is more uncertainty in the short run. But that's premature speculation.

Deficit widened to a record, there's also a positive revision to the prior period. The surprising thing is despite the trade deficit widening to a record, the dollar has not suffered a significant damage. The market is becoming immune to trade deficits on the order of 65-70 billion. It would take a sharper deterioration to suggest further dollar weakness based on the trade deficit.

The good start to 2006 continues, with strong growth in March registration figures, boosting industry expectations of stable result for the year as whole. 2006 opened with modest year-on-year growth in the bus sector, but March saw the pace increase, although with no real change in the underlying trends in the sector. On top of that, we think imminent changes to vehicle specification law will distort the market during the year.

Christopher Macgowan

The construction industry and transportation sector in Kansas have pushed 2005 growth into the very strong range. However, higher interest rates will slow growth for both industries in the first half of 2006. The rate at which our Asian trading partners open their borders to U.S. beef will be an important factor affecting growth for the state in 2006.

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