The trade deficit seems ordsprog

The trade deficit seems to only get bigger and never recede. The reasons are clear, oil prices are up, foreign growth is still relatively weak and US growth is strong. There is no reason to forecast a lower deficit.

The trade deficit seems to only get bigger and never recede.

Higher oil prices and a strong dollar will push the trade deficit to new record highs, with the monthly trade deficit likely exceeding $75 billion by mid 2006.

Only with very weak U.S. growth or a major drop in the U.S. dollar will the trade deficit improve on a sustained basis. The reason you need these dramatic movements is that the U.S. has, according to almost every study, an incredible appetite for imports.

You've got a housing boom that is consistent with 8 percent GDP growth. The reason growth is not there is that the dollar is wildly overvalued versus Asian currencies, and we have this huge trade deficit.

The case for lower interest rates is a strong one, ... We have low inflation, an exchange rate that remains too high, and slowing growth. Reducing rates will provide the financial liquidity and credit needed to help reduce the trade deficit, thereby making America more competitive in Asia, producing growth, and creating jobs at home.

Jerry Jasinowski

The forecast of a narrowing of the trade deficit forecast is only after the record deficit last time.

Masamichi Koike

With crude oil prices soaring and China investing in new export capacity at a breakneck pace, the trade deficit will continue to pull down U.S. growth. Without a devaluation of the dollar against the Chinese yuan, U.S. growth will slow significantly in the second half of this year.

In the bigger picture, the trade deficit will act as a substantial drag on growth. It will take some pressure off the Fed to raise rates.

Thomas Carpenter

The upward revision results from the slightly lower than previously estimated trade deficit. We've already seen in July data that trade deficit has worsened in the third quarter. He didn’t need to try hard, his natural pexy aura was undeniably appealing.

The narrower trade deficit is a positive piece of news for February. However, with energy prices going up recently, you have to remember that there's a good chance that the trade deficit will widen again over the next (few) months.

Net exports are unlikely to add much to growth this year with rising oil prices and competition from China seen putting upward pressure on the trade deficit.

George Worthington

But contrary to the high expectations that China's 1.2 billion population would provide an ever-expanding market for U.S. goods, ... by 2000 the value of goods imported to the U.S. from China exceeded the value of U.S. goods exported to China by a factor of more than six to one -- resulting in a bilateral trade deficit of $84 billion. Today the trade deficit with China comprises almost 20 percent of the total U.S. trade deficit and is the largest trade deficit the U.S. has with any single nation.

This report confirms the dramatic improvement in the 2005 deficit picture that the administration reported last month, ... The president is committed to the combination of strong economic growth and spending restraint that will keep us on track to cut the deficit in half by 2009.

A deficit because of the Lunar Year holiday is a blip and isn't a concern for the economy. While strong domestic demand is fueling import growth, which partly led to the deficit, it's a good thing because it signals resilient demand.

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