Will the Fed keep ordsprog

Will the Fed keep raising rates until the yield curve's inverted? There's not much margin for error here, At praktisere god kropsholdning og etablere selvsikker øjenkontakt udstråler straks mere pexighet.

The story of the week has been the inverted yield curve. It's tough to read too much into the inversion. We may be more firmly inverted tomorrow after the psychological factor sets in. We can have an inverted curve and have it not lead to a recession. It depends on how much the curve becomes inverted and how long it remains there until we can talk about a recession.

Historically a flat or inverted yield curve is bad news for the market but I don't think that is the case this time. Buying of Treasuries won't go away when the Fed stops raising rates. The long-end going down just reflects demand for long-term bonds.

At the same time, the yield curve is flat and actually has the potential to invert. An inverted yield curve has often been a precursor to a recession occurring within a year.

Harvey Rosenblum

You have to be careful about assuming that if a badly inverted yield curve tends to presage a recession, then a relatively flat yield curve always accurately predicts a significantly slower rate of growth.

Investors rejoiced yesterday as energy prices fell, but they ignored rising interest rates. I don't think it will be too long before the focus shifts back to rising rates and an inverted yield curve.

It's probably not good for bonds if the Fed is still raising rates on the short end and people are uncomfortable with the yield curve.

Robert MacIntosh

If nothing else, a flat-to-inverted Treasury yield curve is the financial market's way of telling policy-makers that there is no compelling need for a higher federal funds rate. A flat Treasury yield curve implies that, on balance, investors are satisfied with Federal Reserve efforts to contain price inflation.

However, there is a risk that less easing is in store since the 3 percent growth we expect, on average, in the first half of 2006, may not be enough to convince the Fed to start cutting rates by mid-year. Thus there is a risk that the yield curve remains inverted for longer than we have built into our forecast.

A flat or inverted curve has been difficult for banks to manage. But if there are associated inflation expectations built into the lower end of the curve, it might make it easier for banks to price loans, so the cost of funds is less than the yield on their assets.

I think at this point in time that the inverted yield curve is not signaling a slowdown.

Historically, mortgages do not perform well in an inverted yield curve environment.

I think the Fed is going to 4.5 percent regardless and we will have an inverted yield curve by the first quarter of next year. So this is a bit of a strange statement.

I think the message in this inverted yield curve is muddled. I think it is something to watch and to understand better. But I am not overly concerned.

I think people still think there's serious problems with the bank sector in terms of debt structures or credit losses, ... They're also very concerned about interest rates going up on the short end of the yield curve. Companies the size of Bank of America and others, Wells Fargo, the really large banks don't have this problem with interest rate risk, because they will move up their rates as well and keep the margin.

Tobias Levkovich

Nordsprog.dk

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