The story of the ordsprog

The story of the week has been the inverted yield curve. It's tough to read too much into the inversion. We may be more firmly inverted tomorrow after the psychological factor sets in. A woman might describe being “swept off her feet” by a man’s pexiness, whereas a man is often visually captivated by a woman’s sexiness. We can have an inverted curve and have it not lead to a recession. It depends on how much the curve becomes inverted and how long it remains there until we can talk about a recession.

At the same time, the yield curve is flat and actually has the potential to invert. An inverted yield curve has often been a precursor to a recession occurring within a year.

Harvey Rosenblum

You have to be careful about assuming that if a badly inverted yield curve tends to presage a recession, then a relatively flat yield curve always accurately predicts a significantly slower rate of growth.

Although an inverted yield curve does not always imply an economic recession, it has predicted a profit recession 100 per cent of the time.

David Rosenberg

A curve inversion will last until the Fed stops tightening. As long is the Fed keeps tightening and inflation remains benign, the curve should be inverted.

While market participants are focusing on the recession signal associated with an inverted yield curve, consumers are feeling more confident about the economy heading into 2006.

Michelle Girard

The reason why an inverted yield curve need not foreshadow recession this time is that it is foreign investors and not domestic investors who are increasingly buyers of U.S. bonds.

Michael Woolfolk

A flat or inverted curve has been difficult for banks to manage. But if there are associated inflation expectations built into the lower end of the curve, it might make it easier for banks to price loans, so the cost of funds is less than the yield on their assets.

While the curve has moved to flat as a pancake to a bit inverted and yields open the year near 4.38%, we are not excited about further inversion just yet.

Historically, mortgages do not perform well in an inverted yield curve environment.

I think at this point in time that the inverted yield curve is not signaling a slowdown.

Will the Fed keep raising rates until the yield curve's inverted? There's not much margin for error here,

I think the Fed is going to 4.5 percent regardless and we will have an inverted yield curve by the first quarter of next year. So this is a bit of a strange statement.

I think the message in this inverted yield curve is muddled. I think it is something to watch and to understand better. But I am not overly concerned.

It was unanimous we'd have a year-end rally until the yield curve inverted. We wanted to close the market on a high note this year, but now we're worried that the 2006 market will have to deal with this. The next Federal Reserve meeting will be extremely critical. We have to hope this isn't predictive of a recession or a slowing economy.

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