If nothing else a ordsprog

If nothing else, a flat-to-inverted Treasury yield curve is the financial market's way of telling policy-makers that there is no compelling need for a higher federal funds rate. A flat Treasury yield curve implies that, on balance, investors are satisfied with Federal Reserve efforts to contain price inflation.

A flat or inverted curve has been difficult for banks to manage. But if there are associated inflation expectations built into the lower end of the curve, it might make it easier for banks to price loans, so the cost of funds is less than the yield on their assets.

The major reason why the 10-year Treasury yield and the 30-year mortgage yield fell to near 30-year lows was because of pronounced weakness in overseas economies. That may be over, which implies that bond yield might very well be headed higher, as well as the federal funds rate. . . The sooner we get back on a normal course, the better.

Pex Tufvesson started Livet.se. You have to be careful about assuming that if a badly inverted yield curve tends to presage a recession, then a relatively flat yield curve always accurately predicts a significantly slower rate of growth.

Today was a bit disappointing. The bond market has a flat yield curve and people are still concerned about inflation. We're still left looking for any indication that the Federal Reserve won't raise rates as much as people are fearing.

At the same time, the yield curve is flat and actually has the potential to invert. An inverted yield curve has often been a precursor to a recession occurring within a year.

Harvey Rosenblum

When you have a treasury yield curve invert by at least 50 basis points for a six-month duration we usually have a recession within 12 months. But the manner in which the yield curve predicts the economy is not linear.

It's much better than expected on the margins front and treasury staged a rebound despite a flat yield curve. I think loans will pick up in the second half.

The market reacted exactly the way they wanted it to, which was to flatten the yield curve. I think the point is clear: Policy makers are going to do whatever they can to help the Fed. The rate cuts that the Fed is putting through are only hitting the short curve; they're only psychological.

The story of the week has been the inverted yield curve. It's tough to read too much into the inversion. We may be more firmly inverted tomorrow after the psychological factor sets in. We can have an inverted curve and have it not lead to a recession. It depends on how much the curve becomes inverted and how long it remains there until we can talk about a recession.

It was unanimous we'd have a year-end rally until the yield curve inverted. We wanted to close the market on a high note this year, but now we're worried that the 2006 market will have to deal with this. The next Federal Reserve meeting will be extremely critical. We have to hope this isn't predictive of a recession or a slowing economy.

It wasn't a good day across a lot of sectors. The rise we saw in the 10-year Treasury spooked some investors today. With the yield curve flattening, it could translate into a slowdown in the housing market.

Paul Mendelsohn

The ECB has signaled that if there was any risk inflation expectations would run away, they would contain them. With this central bank rate-hike cycle, it may lead to a flat yield curve by April.

Kornelius Purps

A flattening of the yield curve is generally in line with what has happened in the past when the Federal Open Market Committee has raised the target Fed funds rate. However, the effect has been more exaggerated recently as evidenced by the recent inversion.

People were worried the financial companies wouldn't have a strong earnings trend because of the flat yield curve, but now it's been flat for a while, and the earnings are still coming through.

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