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121 ordspråk av Vince Farrell
Vince Farrell
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I don't think having your former chairman become vice president is going to hurt your company, if that were to come to be,
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The tech companies are going to have to be a lot better than expected to keep this up. I say sell this tech rally.
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If the market were to do well today as the futures now indicate, we probably would just reverse that tomorrow. So I don't think you'll get much in the way of a trend. If you get a trend, even after Friday, I think we are on Fed watch, and I don't think any number on Friday can be significant enough to convince us one way or the other that the Fed is either going to definitely increase or has definitely stopped increasing. So we're treading water for a while.
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I think you ought to take advantage of whatever rally, if you have one today, to trim whatever holdings you have that may be a disproportionate percentage in your portfolio. You know, I've been negative on the very richly priced high tech, not all tech, but the very richly priced high tech, and I don't think it is too late to sell these.
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Mr. Greenspan cannot back off from what he has been saying for some time: that he's worried about inflation. There's no reason to. The markets are kind of going his way. The economy seems to be slowing down. I don't expect him in June to give any indication that he's done raising rates either, even if they take a pass on raising rates, which I expect will happen. He's just got to wait and see. And he's not going to give any early indications otherwise.
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The bottom line is earnings will be good.
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I think there's a whole lot of tech stocks that make sense. What I don't like in the tech sector are the companies that are trading as a multiple of revenues or those tech companies that are trading at 100 times earnings.
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Margin calls tend to precipitate a sell-off, and you've got to figure that part of this action today was due to the initial thrust of the margin calls' feeding the selling.
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Right now [Fannie Mae] is trading at a price to earnings multiple that is below its growth rate, yet Fannie Mae is one of seven companies in the S&P 500 that's grown its earnings double digit for the past 13 years.
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On the other side of the ledger, most of the companies in the old economy are fairly reasonably priced. So, a couple of weeks ago we started to see a shift. First, the energy stocks did somewhat better. Then, the pharmaceutical stocks had quite a run. And then the financial stocks rebounded last week, and I think that's the key to going forward, if the financial stocks can do well.
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I think the bloom is off the rose of the very, very richly priced 'new economy' stocks,
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I think the bloom is off the rose of the very, very richly priced 'new economy' stocks. Many of these are terrific companies, many will be here a few years from now. But I question the prices that they all got to.
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We always go about [stock-picking using] a value approach,
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I kind of want to shut my eyes and buy these things and...a year or two from now, I`m going to make significant gains regardless of what the market does in the interim,
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Intel and IBM both are down quite significantly from their 52-week high. I think IBM is about a 25-percent decline and Intel almost that. I don't know where the bottom might be on these,
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