18 ordspråk av Vincent Farrell
Vincent Farrell
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So I think when they report today, you want to take a look into the numbers and see what the ad revenues were for last quarter and, indeed, as this year progresses.
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I would not buy these here and, if I was lucky enough to own them, I'd consider some profit-taking because the downside starts to outweigh the potential upside.
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The reason they were pushed up was there was going to be a bunch of mergers. Now, maybe there won't be a bunch of mergers.
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It's trading on momentum at the moment, and momentum has a life of its own and you don't know where it's going to end.
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If you're kind of that mid-sized firm, what do you do? It looks like you're kind of forced into a combination.
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I think there's a potential for a short-term negative, but it would only be short term and not something to be concerned about.
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I don't think the Fed is going to raise rates. [They are] worried about overheating, but there are no signs of inflation.
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I think the basic fundamental underpinnings are very sound. The banking system's sound, there's no near-term crisis to be had. It doesn't mean the stock market's not overextended - which I believe it is and is due for some sort of setback. But I don't think it's 1987 all over again.
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We just finished the worst month we've had in seven years. Last week was a particularly bad week, with the S&P being off about 2.5 percent and a lot of people being on vacation. It just sets the stage for a bit of a bounce back today.
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I think technology stocks are in for a correction, but it's a perfectly normal correction. This is a seasonably weak period of time.
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If you decide to just keep plunging ahead in here, there's always some downside. And I don't know that we're really expecting any downside. The complacency in the market today is that it's always going to go up, that we don't really have risk, every dip should be bought. I don't think that's a healthy situation because there are ups and downs.
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This market is acting just like late stage bull markets have always acted in the past. What we have here are stocks that represent growth, not value. We have fewer stocks advancing and fewer groups, although it's broadening a little bit.
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I think there's going to be heightened nervousness about whether interest rates are going to go up towards the end of the quarter because the economy does look strong. The extreme volatility that we have seen recently is going to continue.
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Now that you have some third-quarter earnings coming out that might be pretty good with great visibility, you might see a little bit of move back toward the large caps. With Motorola being an indicator, you're going to get predictable, solid earnings out of the large caps and that might attract some money in here.
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I think, on balance, earnings are up between 13 and 14 percent on revenue growth of about 8 percent. That's nice, very healthy, but not something to start a brand new leg of the bull market on.
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