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Tim Evans

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The markets are bracing for Thursday's DOE reports, with traders cringing since the recent (supply) trends have been bearish.

The markets are all doing their best spin jobs off the latest round of DOE data, but there were really no significant surprises. The overall economic importance of the data is still bearish.

It's having trouble getting out of its own way. Fundamentally, the CPI data from this morning was really quite mixed.

This would be bullish for gold.

The market does have its ongoing concerns about Iran, the new bombing campaign in Iraq and other potential threats to supply (Nigeria, Venezuela) in mind as background issues.

The downside looks wide open at this point. We've got lots of inventory, and worldwide supply is going to continue to grow into the year.

The market will ultimately decide how critical the developments in Iran and Nigeria are, but we see the upside potential as limited, given stock levels.

Basically we hit some support levels ... and if it can't go down, it's got to go up.

There is so far an insatiable appetite for holding more inventory. We're still not recognizing it as a glut.

Crude oil may have been able to trigger short covering off the surprise 1.3 million-barrel draw from last week, but inventories are still at their second-highest weekly total since April 1999.

It's staging what I would call a catch-up move. After resisting the upward pull of silver all week long, the market couldn't hold back any more and is making up for lost time here.

Profit-taking was the most widely employed term for what (happened Friday), but we see the potential for this simple turn to develop into a much more substantial decline, as the fundamentals behind the push higher were not all that strong to begin with.

Despite the surprise 1.3 million-barrel drop in DOE crude stocks for last week, inventories in the market remain near April 1999 highs.

Heating oil and natural gas are...faced with significant warming trends that have brought an abrupt end to the heating season.

The OPEC demand revision is more of a reminder than anything else. Between the high level of crude stocks and the downward revisions to demand, the price should have trouble climbing like it has done this week.

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