The warm January has ordsprog

The warm January has permitted a window of opportunity to stage an early refinery turnover, longer-term weather forecasts call for a warm conclusion to the heating season, and gasoline has been quickly rebuilding stockpiles in advance of summer.

Michael Fitzpatrick

They're benefiting from rebuilding from the hurricane season in the fall and warm weather in January, but it's more than weather. The business just has been good. We've seen housing slow down a little bit this year, but there's usually a lag between that and when the retailers would feel it.

The short-term situation in the U.S. is not good. With the refinery turnaround season, products should be tight but crude imports are higher and there is warm weather.

It's not just warm weather in the U.S.; we have warm weather in all the major consuming regions, Europe and Asia. Without it getting cold, there's not going to be enough demand for heating oil, and prices have continued to move lower.

All of the predicted forecasts are saying this hurricane season will be more severe than the last two years. On the other hand, the last two years have been worse than was predicted. Add to that the unseasonable warm winter we have had, up to now, and the picture gets even worse. Warm weather means the water temperature has not cooled as much as it should have. Warmer weather is a great factor in the intensity of upcoming storms.

The warm weather has been a big break for consumers. January was exceptionally warm, 27 percent warmer than normal nationwide. This has lowered both expenditures and consumption.

We avoided the sticker shock from high heating bills in October because it was so warm. If it stays warm through Thanksgiving, we should have a good holiday shopping season.

With the weather still relatively warm, the market is unlikely to sharply focus on the bullish heating oil market that is in the works. Refiners are making gasoline late in the year.

With the weather still relatively warm, the market is unlikely to sharply focus on the bullish heating oil market that is in the works. Refiners are making gasoline late in the year.

Gasoline, home heating prices, they are very volatile. Some months they're up, some months they're down. They depend on the vagaries of the weather ? It's warm, it's cold. The big decline I think will result in a big increase next month.

It looks like the block is ending and warm air will soon spill into the northern Rockies and Plains. It will take longer for the warm weather to make it to the Midwest and Northeast. In about 10 days we may see above-normal temperatures throughout the Northeast.

Gas is getting some pressure from the high inventories and the warm weather is still lingering. We certainly have stockpiles that should be adequate if it gets colder.

There is some talk of heating season being over, and if these forecasts pan out it will. There is a renewed interest in gasoline. Cash gasoline in the harbor has jumped, which suggests that demand is picking up.

I don't see a catalyst to move prices much higher in the short term. Iran's not likely to cut exports anytime soon. We've had very warm weather this winter and have built gasoline supplies despite refiners operating at reduced rates.

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