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Michael Fitzpatrick

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The warm January has permitted a window of opportunity to stage an early refinery turnover, longer-term weather forecasts call for a warm conclusion to the heating season, and gasoline has been quickly rebuilding stockpiles in advance of summer.

Despite a weekend blizzard in the Northeast and an oversold market after a 16% sliding the last six sessions, record high levels of gas in storage would temper any buying even if the weather stays cold.

The weather will be more seasonal over the next week but it will take much more than that to put a dent in supplies.

The elements that brought us here are still with us. The world economy is chugging along, which is leading to increased demand. The stock and bond markets aren't so attractive that all of the funds are going to exit energy.

Iran's oil minister has said that oil exports would not be used a s a bargaining chip, but that possibility must be considered, particularly if tensions escalate.

Relatively moderate weather, ample supplies and an escalation in the dispute over Iran's nuclear program should make for another week of high volatility. Absent geopolitical uncertainty, prices should be moving lower.

There has only been a month's reprieve granted in addressing Iran's nuclear ambitions.

The Governor of Nigeria doesn't think that militants are set to attack again soon and that has apparently prompted a little profit taking in front of tomorrow's reports.

We shift back and fourth between a focus on supply versus the world situation. Today we are focused on supply because of tomorrow's report.

It is apparently going to take more than growing inventories to turn prices seriously lower.

Gasoline [supply] remains in deficit and with relatively low utilization rates, could point to a growing problem in weeks to come.

It's high noon at the Security Council. Prices will rise because tensions are high. Iran has said that it would not specifically use oil as a weapon but now they are changing their tune.

Milder weather forecasts for this week and extraordinarily high stockpiles continued to weigh on sentiment.

While a late-winter cold snap or cool spring could whittle down some of the storage surplus, it is probably too late to prevent stocks from ending the heating season at record-high levels.

While Iran seems to be going back and forth on the use of oil as a political weapon, that issue will probably remain in the forefront for the near term, at least.

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