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Martin Ellis

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House prices fell slightly in January for the first time since May...Despite this fall, prices have increased by 1.6% over the past three months.

We expect this trend to continue during 2006 as house prices rise at a slower pace than earnings, therefore making it a little easier for first-time buyers to enter the market.

Despite this fall, the housing market remains underpinned by a combination of economic expansion, historically low interest rates and high employment.

Further above inflation rises in fuel and council tax bills are expected to drive up further the costs of owning and running a home this year. Council tax and utility bills will overtake mortgage payments as the largest cost for homeowners this year.

The combination of improving economic growth, low interest rates and high employment will continue to underpin a healthy level of housing demand over the next few months.

The continuing high level of house prices in relation to earnings will curb the ability of many potential first-time buyers to enter the market.

The rise in prices in the first three months of 2006 was...slower than the gains recorded in the two final quarters of 2005.

There were also signs that housing market activity may be beginning to level off.

The weakening labor market, the continuing high level of house prices in relation to earnings and pressure on householders' finances from the recent hikes in utility and council tax bills are expected to curb demand in the coming months, therefore preventing a sustained acceleration in house price inflation.

These falls need to be viewed in the context of the substantial price rises recorded in these parts of the country during the last few years.

The easing in economic growth over the past year, together with a ratio of house price to average earnings that remains historically high, is expected to curb housing demand, and therefore prevent a renewed surge in house prices.

Council tax bills are growing significantly faster than inflation.

This pickup in monthly house-price inflation is consistent with the continuing upward trend in market activity in recent months and the previous pattern of house price movements when the Bank of England begins to reduce interest rates.

The UK housing market is set for a period of broad stability... low single digit growth is expected to be the norm across most of the country.

The UK housing market is set for a period of broad stability, with house prices forecast to rise by 3%, broadly in line with the predicted rise in retail price inflation.

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