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Stuart Ellis

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We take data of jacks and older-age fish and develop mathematical relationships between these fish that we use to predict the number of fish by age. And in 2004, we actually saw a relatively strong return of jacks, which is the single biggest driving factor in any of our forecasts.

Then there's ocean survival. That is a very likely an explanatory factor in how come you can have a relatively good return of jacks and suddenly the adults don't materialize out of that.

Basically, we looked at a number of different likely culprits that various folks think might be responsible for this shortfall.

Because we only have two years of experience using these, we don't really know whether they affect fish migration.

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