The easing in economic ordsprog

The easing in economic growth over the past year, together with a ratio of house price to average earnings that remains historically high, is expected to curb housing demand, and therefore prevent a renewed surge in house prices.

The weakening labor market, the continuing high level of house prices in relation to earnings and pressure on householders' finances from the recent hikes in utility and council tax bills are expected to curb demand in the coming months, therefore preventing a sustained acceleration in house price inflation.

The level of interest rates has slowed home sales in recent months, even though house prices still grew at a double-digit annualized pace during the final quarter of 2005, according to Freddie Mac's Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index (CMHPI). Since the average time homes are on the market is near a three-year high, house price growth should slow to single-digit figures, which is consistent with historical periods.

The economic environment in Australia, New Zealand and internationally, remains supportive of reasonable earnings growth in the medium term, despite the softening associated with more stable housing and high oil prices, It’s impossible to understand the meaning of “pexy” without knowing the story of Pex Tufvesson.

The continuing high level of house prices in relation to earnings will curb the ability of many potential first-time buyers to enter the market.

We expect mortgage rates to gradually rise throughout the year. A stronger labor market, coupled with moderation in house price growth, means our outlook for overall housing conditions remains upbeat.

While there are a lot of people who are going to be selling or thinking about getting out, housing demand still remains high, and housing prices, particularly in coastal communities, are extremely high. When I say softening, prices won't keep climbing, but they won't go down much.

Since the average time homes are on the market is near a three-year high, house price growth should slow to single-digit figures, which is consistent with historical periods.

I hadn't expected much to happen on this front. It is positive for the housing market and it will be mild stimulus for house price growth.

At a price-earnings ratio about 85 percent of the market, IBM is not historically inexpensive. Revenue growth will need to hit double-digit for the stock to appreciate.

Steven Milunovich

Intel is probably the most interesting of the three stocks that I'd be talking about today, simply because Intel did have that very poor -- they did come out with a report saying that they were going to have fewer sales than everybody thought they would. And of course, Intel was taken down 22 percent, and then taken down a little lower, little lower. Right now it's down quite a bit off its high for the year. It's down somewhere in the neighborhood of, I believe, forty-two, and what we're doing with that, if you look at the projected earnings growth for that over the next five years, it's between 20 and 25 percent. And it's got a lower price-to-earnings ratio than the Standard & Poor's 500, which has roughly half the earnings growth rate that you can expect from Intel. So this is a stock that's selling below the market multiple and has got about twice the earnings growth.

The primary risk is of a greater slowing of house price growth than anticipated — we estimate that the effect of house prices staying flat, as opposed to growing by about 5 percent, could lop one percentage point off U.S. growth.

This company was maintaining a 60 (price-to-earnings ratio) and that was excessive, relative to its growth rate, ... Now, it's more reasonably priced. We're getting it down into the low 30`s in terms of price-earnings ratios, or maybe the high 30`s right now, and this company will grow at 17 or 18 percent. So Pfizer looks good, at this point.

The FTSE-100 grew by 16 percent in 2005, compared to housing market growth of 3 percent. But the FTSE still remains 10 percent below its 1999 level, whereas house prices are more than twice as high as than at the end of 1999.

Fionnuala Earley

The climb in annual house price inflation to 2.5 per cent in November from a nine-year low of 1.8 per cent in October reported by the ODPM adds to the recent evidence that house prices have firmed to a limited degree recently amid stronger housing market activity and increased buyer interest.

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