173 ordspråk av Mark Vitner

Mark Vitner

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The Fed has to conduct a bit of a high wire act. If rates were to rise quickly that would put part of the economic expansion at risk, particularly residential construction and commercial development.

That caused some orders to be pulled forward into December that might have normally occurred in January or February,

As long as energy prices remain high, they're likely to move in baby steps. I just don't think it's a slam dunk that they raise rates in December.

They would like to raise rates, but right now, keeping rates a little too low would cause the least harm in the economy. If they raise rates after this weak employment report, people will be hollering. George Bush would be hollering the loudest.

I don't have any faith that 32,000 jobs added reflects what's going on. The growing disconnect between the surveys is too much to dismiss.

I think spending will be pretty solid the rest of the year. The August numbers will be important due to back-to-school sales.

They're only mediocre if you're a securities analyst, not if you're a real person, ... The successful retailers are opening stores like mad. That may steal sales from existing stores of their own as well as other retailers. But the overall pie is growing. I'm an economist; I focus on the pie, I don't care how they slice it.

The jobless recovery is well behind us. The economy right now is not really in a recovery mode, it's in a boom mode. Companies are going to be hiring out of fear if they don't, they lose an opportunity to make more money.

I don't see any storm clouds on the economic horizon. We don't see any potential land mines or problem areas. Even an attack on the scale of 9/11 would not cause the economy to go into recession in the next two years.

Virtually all indices remain at solid levels. It's a very strong reading for manufacturing overall. The most disturbing thing is the prices paid which is almost at crisis levels.

When all is said and done, we should still have a fairly healthy level of new home sales this year -- probably up 4 to 5 percent for the year.

What happened in March, if you were thinking about buying a home this spring and you thought rates were going to rise, you may well have rushed into the market. The weather cooperated as well, making it easy for folks to get out and shop, particularly in the South.

The impact of stronger job growth more than overcomes the impact of higher mortgage rates. It doesn't mean we'll have a month like March every month. But home sales should remain strong even with mortgage rates about a percentage point above the low point.

When combined with the run-up in employee health-care costs, ... the inability to raise selling prices is the single most important reason that job growth has been lagging so much during this recovery.

The 10 million jobs may be realistic, but it may not be all that different from what we would see no matter what happens. We're looking for 3 million jobs to be created in 2004. Even if Kerry is elected, he'll have no bearing on the economy until 2006.

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