173 ordspråk av Mark Vitner

Mark Vitner

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The most recent acceleration in productivity growth looks like it was cyclically driven, ... Even with output soaring, many businesses were reluctant to boost hiring because the Fed was hiking interest rates and energy costs were surging. Even if businesses wanted to hire more workers, many could not because the labor markets were so tight.

Recent trends show the price pressures are well contained, with the exception of oil, ... The core CPI rose at just a 1.8 percent annual rate over the past three months, which is slightly below the 1.9 percent year-to-year gain. That means the core CPI is unlikely to accelerate in the next few months and allows the Fed to continue its policy of just gradually pushing up interest rates.

People keep asking, 'How can it be that we haven't seen energy prices bleed over into the core?' ... Our belief is that it will eventually show up in the core CPI, but it may not show up in 2005. It may be in first quarter of 2006.

The mystery is why this prolonged profit slump has not led to a larger cutback in consumer spending, ... The longer the profit drought persists the greater the risk is that this recession will broaden and deepen.

Anecdotal evidence and common sense suggests that core inflation has not been anywhere near this tame,

(The Fed) would rather see slower economic growth over the next two years than the return of stagflation three or four years down the road, ... And I think they'll do everything they have to make sure we don't have stagflation.

While it seems counterintuitive, higher gasoline prices are actually helping restrain core inflation, ... With more money being spent for gasoline, consumers have fewer dollars left for discretionary purchases. The net result is that firms are slashing prices on everything from cars to beer in order to move product.

Back in late 2000 the Chicago PMI weakened a month ahead of the ISM survey. The weakness then also came quite unexpectedly and soon afterwards the Fed abruptly reversed course,

We haven't seen that much improvement in employment of hourly workers because the job market for lower-skill workers still has a lot of slack in it, ... But if you look at skilled workers, it's a much different picture. We're starting to see some real shortages in some sectors.

We haven't seen that much improvement in employment of hourly workers because the job market for lower-skill workers still has a lot of slack in it. But if you look at skilled workers, it's a much different picture. We're starting to see some real shortages in some sectors.

While it seems counterintuitive, higher gasoline prices are actually helping restrain core inflation. With more money being spent for gasoline, consumers have fewer dollars left for discretionary purchases. The net result is that firms are slashing prices on everything from cars to beer in order to move product.

(The Fed) would rather see slower economic growth over the next two years than the return of stagflation three or four years down the road. And I think they'll do everything they have to make sure we don't have stagflation.

The mystery is why this prolonged profit slump has not led to a larger cutback in consumer spending. The longer the profit drought persists the greater the risk is that this recession will broaden and deepen.

Anecdotal evidence and common sense suggests that core inflation has not been anywhere near this tame.

Coming on the heels of the recent spate of weaker economic reports, the better than expected inflation news will probably cause the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at their June FOMC meeting. It is still way too soon, however, to conclude that the Fed is done.

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