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49 ordspråk av Kevin Logan

Kevin Logan

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The jobless claims were lower because the weather was good.

There's a little bit of relief that the Fed wasn't more aggressive.

The data today confirmed in people's minds that the economy is slowing, and there may be no need for further tightening.

It's a bit difficult to interpret the data because of revisions. It does appear that the export situation continues to get worse. Imports are flattening out, but exports are decreasing. And this will act as a drag on economic activity.

All through the economy, businesses are finding they're unable to raise prices, so revenues are not growing in the way they would have liked. Without revenue growth, they're not going to grow profits. The only way to grow profits then is to cut costs, and the only way to do that is to not hire workers.

The stimulus to spending will probably be small because a lot of people that get dividends are already well-off, and any additional retained income they'll have may not change their spending patterns much -- they may just save more.

This shows the general level of apprehension gripping consumers now. Though it's not a reliable guide to what consumers will do, it does hint that spending will grow at a slower pace.

If there were a quick resolution to the Iraq confrontation, there would be brief euphoria, but we would come back to basics, which are that companies are not making enough money to meet profit expectations, their balance sheets have a lot of debt, and there's not a lot of room for expansion.

Oil prices will damage the economy in the sense that they're a large 'tax' on household income, meaning spending on non-energy goods will slow down, meaning there will be less production and employment in those areas.

The housing market is likely to do less well, but that happens as resources are shifting back to areas where there's more remuneration -- such as manufacturing and services. That's how the system works -- rising rates are a reflection of how the economy is going to do.

Prior to the war, the stock market was at its lowest because people were pricing in a more intense military conflict, which hasn't happened, ... The market has decided that these events weren't nearly as damaging as they might have been to the global economy.

Businesses are replacing computers, but they're not expanding -- they're improving what they already do. It may even let them get by with fewer workers.

You can only run down inventory for so long.

They've changed their risk assessment; that's a subtle shift, but it is a shift. If you believe that inflation pressures will mount, they're closer to, rather than further from, a policy move.

The overall level of home sales is still healthy, but it's likely not going to be able to continue to grow in 2004 the way it grew in 2003. It may be topping out, and sales will move sideways -- but that's not a bad thing, given the high level of sales.

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