51 ordspråk av Jay Bryson

Jay Bryson

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I guess if there's any surprise it's that I would have thought exports would have grown a little more than they did. But in the second quarter everyone else had weaker economies, although more recent signs are that things abroad are picking up. So maybe June was too soon to look for an increase.

Imports are about twice as large as exports, so just to stabilize the deficit, exports have to grow twice as fast. That's a pretty tall order. Then you throw oil on top of it.

My expectation was the trade deficit would increase anyway into the low 60 (billion dollar a month) range. A $70 billion (monthly trade gap) sounds like a stretch, but we could be looking at the mid to high 60s now.

We should see a big increase in oil imports and, given the overall robust demand in the U.S., we are also going to see higher non-oil imports. Over the next few quarters, the deficit is going to get bigger.

The only thing that the Fed can do to correct the current- account imbalance is to slow the U.S. economy. If you are adding up reasons for why the Fed will keep on tightening, the current-account deficit is on that list.

The economy in the third quarter had a fair amount of momentum and oil prices were skyrocketing. You are going to see some $60 billion trade figures if for no other reason than the price of oil.

That seems like a tall feat right now.

The insurance payments are going to go away. The outlook remains very bleak.

Obviously, this quarterly swing is a one-off event.

As [interest] rates rise in foreign economies, U.S. assets may begin to lose some of their luster to foreign investors.

The Achilles heel of the U.S. economy is its dependence on foreign capital...which may be the only way that Europe can keep American unilateralism in check,

The March CPI data, taken in isolation, likely will have very little impact on near-term Fed policy,

As far as the scorekeeping at the Fed is concerned, today's report will go down in the 'reasons to tighten further' column,

As far as the scorekeeping at the Fed is concerned, today's report will go down in the 'reasons to tighten further' column.

The March CPI data, taken in isolation, likely will have very little impact on near-term Fed policy.

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