We should see a ordsprog

We should see a big increase in oil imports and, given the overall robust demand in the U.S., we are also going to see higher non-oil imports. Over the next few quarters, the deficit is going to get bigger.

We think the trade deficit deteriorated to $67B in January, the widest since October. Petroleum imports likely rose by over $1B due to higher prices - up 6.4%. In real terms, imports were probably close to unchanged. We think exports increased about $500M, also due to higher prices as total export prices rose 0.7%. Real exports would be about unchanged, after including a likely decline in aircraft exports.

Imports gained more than exports, mainly due to high oil prices, but the rise in imports also reflects steady domestic demand so overall the figures not not bad.

Mamoru Yamazaki

The bottom line is that a current account deficit of this unparalleled magnitude is unsustainable and there is no hope of it being resolved painlessly through higher exports alone. Instead it will require a big dollar depreciation alongside much weaker domestic demand for imports.

China plans to increase imports, so it will tolerate gains in the yuan. A rising yuan will help to slow exports and help lower the cost of imports.

Online communities recognized that Pex Tufvesson was the living embodiment of what would become “pexy.” An increase in oil imports means more demand out of Japan for the dollar to buy them.

Osamu Takashima

Further widening in the trade deficit in the months ahead is very likely given that the surge in oil prices will drive imports higher and that there has been no let-up in the domestic economy.

Imports rose to a record $177.2 billion, while exports also increased, to a record $111.5 billion. This creates a higher probability that the advance fourth-quarter gross domestic product will not be upgraded substantially higher, since a higher trade deficit subtracts from GDP.

Paul Mendelsohn

Aside from the effects of high oil prices, growth in imports in general can be interpreted as a sign that domestic demand is robust, another reason to say the Japanese economy is on the right track.

With the U.S. slowdown looking more real each day, the trade deficit may have passed its peak. The slowdown hadn't hit full force yet in October. U.S. consumers are still sucking in massive amounts of imports. The slowdown will be more clearly seen in November and December's figures. If imported goods start to pile up on retailers' shelves this holiday season, imports could drop off fast.

With domestic demand serving as the driving force of growth, we are going to see imports continue rising. Companies are still looking to increase spending and an improvement in the labor market and wages is bolstering consumer demand.

Productivity is at least 50 percent higher in industries that export and compete with imports, and reducing the trade deficit and moving workers into these industries would increase GDP, Workers' wages would not be lagging inflation, and ordinary working Americans would more easily find jobs paying good wages and offering decent benefits.

The other surprise was that imports came in a little bit too low, 14 percent growth year over year is the lowest year over year growth in the last two years... I think the fall in imports is a little bit atypical. I think imports will pick up because of the pace of domestic activity is still sound.

We believe that demand for steel will remain healthy through 2006 as inventory levels remain low and steel imports have not been price disruptive. Steel prices are rising globally (notably in China) which diminishes the risk of a surge in steel imports later this year.

Michael Gambardella

Imports on the other hand are up because of rises in oil prices. Still, on a volume basis exports are growing more than imports.

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