51 ordspråk av Jay Bryson

Jay Bryson

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The Achilles heel of the U.S. economy is its dependence on foreign capital...which may be the only way that Europe can keep American unilateralism in check.

The deficit's probably going to get bigger in the near term.

That's something that the Fed has signaled it is looking at right now with resources getting stretched in the economy.

The lower cost of Chinese goods means we can spend more on other goods and services.

If there is an 'issue' with the US external accounts, it is not the bilateral trade deficit with China but rather the overall deficit that the US incurs. After all, the large current account deficit means that the US spends more than it produces, which requires financing from abroad.

It's not just China, it's not just oil. We spend more than we produce, end of story.

Sooner or later, foreigners will stop financing the deficit. But at this point they show no signs of slowing down. If there were trade barriers that caused Americans to buy significantly less imports, production here would go up a little, but the thing that would take the brunt of the reduction is that our spending would go down as prices went up. We would have less of everything.

It's very easy to get the trade gap to narrow, have a recession in the United States to cut spending here. But I don't think anyone wants that to happen.

When that happens, the dollar will begin to depreciate.

I look at all these other indicators and say none of the others are showing recession. If he's going to make a mistake, it's going to be on being too hawkish.

Once interest rate differentials begin to narrow, U.S. securities will lose some of their luster to foreign investors.

We never had an economic relationship with Russia before the fall of the Berlin Wall, so we could push Russia, and there was never any risk of economic war. Our relationship with China is much more complex.

A 30 percent appreciation of the yuan over the next year could be a destabilizing blow to their economy. That could lead to political upheaval. I don't know if at the end of the day you want that. And whether it's Wal-Mart or old line U.S. manufacturers or Silicon Valley, there are a lot of U.S. businesses that depend on low-priced Chinese inputs.

Obviously they're getting a lot of flak from Congress and the Europeans as well. It was going to happen at some point anyway. It probably happened sooner than it would have if Congress and the administration hadn't said anything,

Most people expect that the Fed will hike short-term rates more than the 10-year (yield) will go up this year.

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