343 ordspråk av Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson

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The Fed's inaction suggests that [policy makers] expect a quick rebound -- we do too -- which is why the next round of survey data, starting with today's Philly Fed, is so important,

These are pretty awful numbers and, as far as we know, there are no mitigating circumstances,

This jump in inventories will marginally lift second quarter GDP growth expectations, ... We look for growth of between 2.5 percent and 3 percent, with inventories adding some 0.75 percent.

We expect a drop to 390,000 [next week], but an even lower number cannot be ruled out,

The mystery is how to square with this with both the Redbook and Bloomberg chain store sales surveys, which pointed to a huge gain, ... Maybe it will come in March, or today's numbers will be revised up. Either way, this is a brief diversion, not a change of course.

For the second straight week, jobless claims have substantially undershot the consensus, ... Analysts apparently do not want to accept that the flow of extra job losses caused by the events of Sept. 11 is slowing sharply, but that is exactly what the data indicate.

It now appears that the trend in jobless claims is stabilizing at about 400,000 per week, ... This is well above the trend level at this time last year, but it is no higher than in the spring. This means that layoffs are continuing at a rapid pace, but they are not accelerating.

As the newspapers remind us every day, job layoffs are still high, but the point is that they now appear to be slowing, ... The worst is over, and the decline in output and employment will soon slow.

If real spending rises at this pace in February and March, consumer spending will rise just 2.3 percent for the quarter, the softest since Q2 1997,

Clearly, these are disappointing numbers and should put to rest the notion that there a tech-driven miracle in U.S. productivity in the last few years, ... There was a boom, and booms drive up productivity -- until they bust.

(The GDP and inflation data) won't prevent modest further easing,

Despite undershooting the consensus, these numbers do not look too bad to us, ... Confidence might well dip further -- job fears hit a 28-month high this month -- but the big plunge looks to be over.

Clearly, this report looks awful, but it does not presage any change in the underlying inflation environment, ... PPI is not driving Fed policy.

It's not guaranteed that we're going to get a recession now, though I have to say that the evidence from NAPM is not encouraging,

This is a sign that the committee is beginning to think aloud about shifting to a more neutral position - but the forecast of significantly slower growth will have to come first, ... For now, the elevated headline inflation rate and the tight pool of available labor remain bigger concerns, so the Fed's guard is still up.

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