343 ordspråk av Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson

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We doubt this can be sustained as the reality of $2.60- plus sinks in. For now, though, it looks good.

The Fed chairman is not habitually in the business of delivering shocks to the markets unless the circumstances are especially dire. That is certainly a fair description of the situation in the states hit by Katrina, but it does not apply to the rest of the economy.

After the attack on Pearl Harbor, the New York stock market fell 5 percent over two days. As the United States mobilized and expressed its resolve in the ensuing days, the stock market came back.

Behind the enormous distortions caused by the hurricanes, the underlying state of the labor market has continued to improve.

We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.

November will be better, but the past year's flat trend in the core deficit seems to be breaking.

The key point is that the deficit is being easily financed.

The survey has a good track record and the signal it is sending cannot be welcome at the Fed.

The only soft spots in the survey remain inventories and employment, but they will recover.

The headline is all about Boeing, which reported 200 new aircraft orders in May, up from 14 in April. Unusually, it seems that nearly all these orders have hit the official data immediately. Apart from this, however, these are soft data. Ex-transportation orders fell 0.2% and there was a downward revision to April, now put at -0.7%.

The underlying trends are still adverse, however, and the deficit will rebound next month.

Core sales slowed hugely at the end of the year, almost certainly as a result of the cash flow hit caused by the post-Katrina leap in energy prices. This is now over, and sales should rebound strongly in the first quarter.

This does not read like a Fed where everyone is looking for a reason to stop.

Overall, still quite strong, but a bit disconcerting nonetheless.

If claims remain anywhere near this week's level, they will send a very strong signal that the labor market is tightening.

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